[Politics, That Day...] If You Wonder Who the Next President Is, Head to Daejeon

Since Daejeon Became a Directly Governed City in 1989, 'Daejeon No.1 = Presidential Election Winner' Equation
2012 Presidential Election: Park Geun-hye vs. Moon Jae-in, 49.95% vs. 49.70% Nail-Biting Close Race

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, On That Day...’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to scenes, events, and figures that deserve attention.

The view of the Blue House from Namsan, Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

From the perspective of the ruling and opposition parties competing in the presidential election, there is no region that is unimportant. Whether the population is large or small, the ‘political significance’ is not light. This is why attention is paid not only to populous areas like Gyeonggi Province and Seoul, and the traditional strongholds of the ruling and opposition parties such as Yeongnam and Honam, but also to relatively less populated regions like Gangwon and Jeju.

There is a particular region that those called the strategists of the presidential election camps focus on. The region that will reveal who the next president will be is none other than Daejeon Metropolitan City. The population of Daejeon is similar to that of Gwangju Metropolitan City.

According to Statistics Korea on the 4th, as of July this year, the resident registration population of Daejeon was 1,455,300, slightly more than Gwangju’s 1,442,482. Traditionally, Daejeon has been the representative city of the Chungcheong region, but in terms of population alone, it is slightly larger than Suwon City (1,183,615) and Goyang City (1,081,045) in Gyeonggi Province.

Daejeon’s traditional exclusive regional (Chungcheong) representation is being shaken due to the development of nearby areas such as Sejong and Cheonan. However, no matter what anyone says, Daejeon remains the political number one district of Chungcheong. There is another reason why election strategists pay attention to Daejeon.

Looking at past presidential election results, the candidate who ranked first in Daejeon has invariably been elected president. This has continued unchanged since Daejeon was promoted to a directly governed city in 1989 and up to its current status as a metropolitan city. To find out who won the presidential elections in 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017, you only need to look at Daejeon’s results without checking the nationwide outcomes.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

If you are curious about who will win the 2022 presidential election, it is necessary to look at the public sentiment in Daejeon. Daejeon’s role as a barometer of presidential election sentiment is related to its regional characteristics. Traditionally, Yeongnam (especially Daegu and Gyeongbuk) has been the political stronghold of parties affiliated with the People Power Party.

Honam is the political stronghold of parties affiliated with the Democratic Party of Korea. In contrast, Chungcheong has not shown a one-sided voting tendency except during the era of the late Kim Jong-pil, former chairman of the United Liberal Democrats. In particular, Daejeon is the region in Chungcheong closest to the national voting sentiment.

Many residents of Daejeon are native to Chungcheong, but many have also moved in from other regions. It is the representative city of the Chungcheong area where middle-aged and young generations live harmoniously. The fierce competition among major presidential candidates around Daejeon began with the 14th presidential election in 1992.

At that time, the election featured Chung Ju-young, a candidate from the Unification National Party, considered one of the strongest third-party candidates in history. Candidate Chung Ju-young performed well in Daejeon, securing 23.26%. Democratic Party candidate Kim Dae-jung received 28.73%, but could not surpass the barrier of Kim Young-sam from the Democratic Liberal Party. Kim Young-sam won first place in Daejeon with 35.19%, and he also became the final winner of the 1992 presidential election.

The appearance of Daejeon Station and its surroundings.

There could have been a situation where the equation that Daejeon’s choice reveals the new occupant of the Blue House was broken.

This happened during the 18th presidential election in 2012, when candidates from TK (Daegu and Gyeongbuk) and PK (Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam) faced off. Saenuri Party candidate Park Geun-hye and Democratic United Party candidate Moon Jae-in fought a fierce nationwide battle, and especially in Daejeon, the contest ended in an extremely close race.

In the 2012 presidential election, Moon Jae-in received 49.7% (448,310 votes) in Daejeon. Considering that six candidates ran in the election, this was a vote share that could have easily secured first place, but there was another winner.

Park Geun-hye won first place in Daejeon with 49.95% (450,576 votes). The difference in vote share between the two candidates was only 0.25 percentage points. Interestingly, Moon Jae-in’s 49.7% vote share in Daejeon in 2012 was higher than his 42.93% vote share in Daejeon when he won the 2017 presidential election.

Although Moon Jae-in performed quite well in Daejeon in 2012, there was a candidate who took more votes, and ultimately the final presidential election result ended with Park Geun-hye’s victory.

In the 2017 presidential election, the candidate who ranked first (Moon Jae-in) won in Daejeon by a comfortable margin of around 20 percentage points over the second (Hong Joon-pyo) and third (Ahn Cheol-soo) place candidates.

Will the 2022 presidential election unfold similarly to 2017, or will it be a razor-thin contest like in 2012? The ‘voting sentiment in Daejeon’ is expected to attract much attention not only in the main competition after the ruling and opposition parties select their presidential candidates but also in the primary elections of major parties.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.