Presidential Advisory Body Minjupyeongtong: "Conclusion on ROK-US Exercises Must Be Reached Today or Tomorrow"

[Asia Economy Reporter Inho Yoo, Military Specialist Reporter Nakgyu Yang] Jeong Se-hyun, Senior Vice Chairman of the National Unification Advisory Council, stated on the 12th, "President Moon Jae-in must make a decision to suspend the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises within today or tomorrow."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Jeong appeared on a radio broadcast that morning and urged, regarding the escalating tension caused by Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the North Korean Workers' Party, and Kim Yong-chol, Director of the Party's United Front Department, issuing repeated statements condemning the pre-exercise rehearsals of the South Korea-U.S. joint military drills, "The latter part of the exercises, which North Korea fears, must be suspended within today or tomorrow."

The National Unification Advisory Council is an advisory body on unification policy to the president, with President Moon as its chairman.

Jeong also said, "In President Moon's Liberation Day speech on the 15th, there should be an announcement that the first half of the exercises will proceed as planned, but the latter half will be suspended, reflecting a coordinated position between South Korea and the U.S."

Since the main exercises begin on the 16th, the suspension must be officially announced before then.

Jeong hinted that if the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises proceed, the possibility of North Korean military provocations is high. He expressed concern, saying, "On the 10th, Deputy Director Kim issued a statement indicating it was under Kim Jong-un's orders, and on the 11th, they released a statement corresponding to an action plan. If they are not given a way to back down, their words will inevitably turn into actions."

Opinions among experts, including Jeong, vary somewhat. However, there is consensus that inter-Korean relations are entering a cooling period.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The Moon Jae-in administration's plan to hold a South-North summit through restoring inter-Korean communication lines, family reunions, humanitarian aid, and working-level talks is seen as difficult given the current state of inter-Korean relations.

Professor Park Won-gon of Ewha Womans University said, "Kim Yong-chol's expression that 'the opportunity to improve relations was lost by my own hands' indicates that the restoration of communication channels and improvement of inter-Korean relations are no longer valid."

Kim Yeol-soo, Director of Security Strategy at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, predicted, "North Korea is struggling internally due to COVID-19 and flood damage, so it will likely carry out military provocations to sway public sentiment. Following the abolition of the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea and the Mount Kumgang Tourism Bureau, it is highly likely they will launch short-range missiles."

Experts advise that understanding North Korea's true intentions is essential to achieving future improvements in inter-Korean relations. Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the Graduate School for North Korean Studies analyzed, "What North Korea wants is economic self-reliance to successfully hold the 9th Party Congress in 2025. The military must also be mobilized for economic self-reliance, but feeling insecure about security, they are picking on the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises."

Some voices, contrary to Jeong's opinion, argue that the South Korean government should respond more strongly to North Korea.

Hong Hyun-ik, the nominated head of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, said on a radio broadcast that morning, "There is no need to show further goodwill. However, there is also no need to provoke, and the scheduled exercises should proceed."

He proposed a hardline stance, stating, "If North Korea reacts to the start of the exercises by launching short-range missiles, decapitation drills or preemptive strike exercises should be conducted."

Song Dae-sung, former director of the Sejong Institute, said, "North Korea and China have already reached an understanding to break the South Korea-U.S. alliance. Our government must not reduce security capabilities through the alliance with the U.S."

Meanwhile, North Korea has refused to respond to regular calls via the inter-Korean joint liaison office and military communication lines for three consecutive days in protest against the start of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises.

The Ministry of Unification reported on the 12th, "The opening call at 9 a.m. via the inter-Korean joint liaison office did not take place." A military official also stated, "The regular call at 9 a.m. via the East and West Sea military communication lines did not occur."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.