Delayed Response Despite Faster Spread... Non-Metropolitan Areas Collapse Due to 'Complacency' in Quarantine Measures

Non-Capital Region Cases Account for 40% Range
Delayed Level 3 Measures... "Too Late for Significant Effect"
Infection Reproduction Number Surges from 1.05 to 1.27 in One Month

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Ji-hee] The proportion of COVID-19 cases outside the metropolitan area soaring to the 40% range clearly shows that the "4th wave" has spread from the metropolitan area to non-metropolitan regions. Various indicators that gauge the spread of COVID-19 in non-metropolitan areas have also rapidly worsened. Although experts have continuously urged for the elevation of social distancing measures in non-metropolitan regions, the government’s delayed decision to raise the level all at once has once again drawn criticism for its belated response.

◆ Balloon Effect Already Started: "Level 3 Is Not Enough" = On the 25th, the government held a Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters meeting chaired by President Moon Jae-in and announced special quarantine measures to raise the level to 3 in non-metropolitan areas. As the COVID-19 situation in non-metropolitan areas became serious, the government ultimately decided to raise the level uniformly across all regions. The quarantine authorities explained, "There is concern about the balloon effect of the metropolitan area outbreak and the spread through interregional movement during the vacation season, along with the recent increase in the spread in non-metropolitan areas." However, since the metropolitan balloon effect has already started, the prevailing view is that even applying level 3 makes it difficult to implement a 'short and intense' quarantine. Professor Cheon Eun-mi of the Department of Respiratory Medicine at Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital pointed out, "The outbreak in non-metropolitan areas itself has already crossed over from the metropolitan area through the balloon effect," adding, "When the metropolitan area was raised to level 4, it was necessary to raise the level in non-metropolitan areas simultaneously, but missing the timing has made it difficult to expect significant effects."

The biggest change with the introduction of level 3 in non-metropolitan areas, the ban on private gatherings of five or more people, has already been in effect since the 19th, so there is no noticeable change. Multi-use facilities, including entertainment venues that have recently led cluster infections, can still operate until 10 p.m. Apart from level 3, only measures such as banning nighttime drinking at resorts and beaches have been added.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆ Reproduction Number 1.05 → 1.27 = Experts unanimously say, "The spread of the outbreak in non-metropolitan areas is just beginning." COVID-19 quarantine indicators in non-metropolitan areas have gradually worsened, unnoticed due to the rapid increase in cases in the metropolitan area, and have now surpassed the metropolitan area. The reproduction number, which estimates the spread of COVID-19, recently recorded 1.27 over the past week in non-metropolitan areas. This means that one confirmed case infects an average of 1.27 people, indicating further expansion of the outbreak. During the same period, the reproduction number in the metropolitan area decreased to 1.02. In the last week of the previous month, the metropolitan area recorded 1.25 and non-metropolitan areas 1.05, but in less than a month, the situation has reversed.

The concern over the highly transmissible India-origin Delta variant has also hit non-metropolitan areas. Quarantine authorities report that the Delta variant is spreading rapidly not only in the metropolitan area but also in non-metropolitan regions. The domestic detection rate of the Delta variant rose sharply from 3.3% in the fourth week of June to 48% in the third week of this month, an increase of 45 percentage points in just one month. Especially from this week onward, the Delta variant is expected to exceed 50% and become the dominant variant.

◆ Late Strengthening of Quarantine Measures... What About the Vacation Season? = The government's delayed strengthening of quarantine measures, coinciding with the summer vacation season, has increased confusion among self-employed workers and the public. The weekend movement volume in non-metropolitan areas, which was 33.75 million at the end of last month, rose to 35.55 million in the second week of this month, marking the start of large-scale vacation travel. In major tourist destinations, inquiries about cancellations have been continuous due to the impact of elevated social distancing. Even during the decision to uniformly raise non-metropolitan areas to level 3 the day before, the initial plan to apply the measures immediately from the 26th was postponed by one day at the request of local governments, citing the need for time to prepare on the ground.

There are also calls for authorities to act more meticulously in adjusting social distancing. Professor Cheon said, "Instead of adjusting social distancing levels every two weeks, it should be done in a way such as 'continuing until the number of confirmed cases falls below a certain number,' so that self-employed workers and the general public can prepare." Professor Choi Jae-wook of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Korea University College of Medicine argued, "For regions where infection is spreading and considered risky, such as Chungnam, Gyeongnam, Gyeongbuk, and Jeju, it is appropriate to raise to level 4, the same as the metropolitan area, while relatively lower-risk areas should maintain the current levels 1 or 2," adding, "If necessary, movement restrictions can also be considered."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.