The Collapsed Quarantine Barrier... Cases May Exceed 2,000 This Week, Not Next Month

Seoul Cases Reach Record High of 600+
Nationwide Spread Expected Amid Vacation Season

Authorities' Easing Signals Breed Complacency
Delta Variant Risks Overlooked, a Mistake
Experts Urge "Accelerate Vaccination Schedule"

On the 14th, when the highest record was broken with 1,615 new COVID-19 confirmed cases, citizens who visited the screening clinic set up at Gangnam-gu Public Health Center in Seoul were waiting to get tested. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

[Asia Economy Reporter Seo So-jeong] As the number of new domestic COVID-19 cases surpassed 1,600, the '4th wave' is escalating to an uncontrollable level. The number of cases in the metropolitan area has risen to over 1,100 for the first time, and Seoul's case count has broken its all-time record by reaching over 600.

The proportion of cases outside the metropolitan area has also remained at 20% for six consecutive days, signaling a nationwide outbreak. Experts pessimistically predict that the number of cases could exceed 2,000 within this week if the current trend continues. Although the government has introduced the option to raise 'social distancing' to level 2 in non-metropolitan areas, this measure is criticized as passive given the rapid spread of the Delta variant.

Nationwide Massive Spread... "Unknown Infection Routes" Account for 30%

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters, as of midnight on the 14th, there were 1,615 new confirmed cases, an increase of 465 from the previous day. Despite the number of tests conducted in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas decreasing to 131,844 from the previous day, the sharp rise in cases suggests that the uncontrollable spread will continue nationwide.

Various indicators that gauge the spread also predict worsening conditions. Cases surged rapidly in the metropolitan area, and small-scale infections in daily life continue, causing the speed of epidemiological investigations to lag behind the rate of new cases.

Among the 14,129 new cases reported over the past two weeks (June 30 to July 12), 30.5% (4,316 cases) are classified as 'under investigation' for when and where the infection occurred. This figure has remained above 30% for four consecutive days since the 10th. With about one-third of cases having unknown infection routes, 'n-th generation infections' cannot be prevented.

With the summer vacation season underway, nationwide movement is active, and the spread outside the metropolitan area is expected to accelerate. Lee Sang-won, head of the Epidemiological Investigation and Analysis Team at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, stated, "Unlike the 3rd wave, recent cases (June 1 to July 11) show a high transmission rate among the same age groups in their 20s to 30s and 40s to 50s through preceding confirmed cases," urging, "To block transmission, please strictly follow social distancing rules such as limiting private gatherings."

Vaccination and Quarantine Out of Sync... Sudden Social Distancing Upgrade After Signals of Easing

As social distancing level 4 is applied, schools in Seoul have switched to remote classes. On the morning of the 14th, second-grade students are attending online classes at the emergency care classroom of Muhak Elementary School in Seongdong-gu, Seoul. 2021.07.14.

Experts point out that the uncontrollable worsening of the spread is due to a mismatch caused by the quarantine authorities sending continuous signals of easing restrictions despite a vaccination gap in July. There is also much criticism that the risk of the globally spreading Delta variant was underestimated.

The first domestic infection of the Delta variant was reported on April 29. The influence of the Delta variant intensified rapidly. Among 536 confirmed cases of the four major variants identified domestically in the past week (July 4?10), 374 cases (69.8%) were Delta variant, approaching 70%. Especially in the metropolitan area, the detection rate of the Delta variant doubled from 12.7% in the fifth week of June to 26.5% in the first week of July.

As the number of cases grows, breakthrough infections?cases confirmed more than two weeks after completing vaccination?are also increasing. Among 4,167,322 fully vaccinated individuals domestically, there have been 252 suspected breakthrough cases: 143 with Janssen, 59 with Pfizer, and 50 with AstraZeneca vaccines. Variant analysis of 37 breakthrough cases confirmed major variant virus infections in 12 patients (32.4%).

Professor Chun Eun-mi of the Respiratory Medicine Department at Ewha Mokdong Hospital said, "The quarantine authorities forecast 2,300 cases next month, but at this rate, exceeding 2,000 cases this week is possible," adding, "The problem started when the easing policies were implemented last month to incentivize vaccination, overlooking the trend of Delta becoming dominant not only in highly vaccinated countries like the U.S. and the U.K. but worldwide." She added, "Raising social distancing to level 2 in non-metropolitan areas is a belated measure. The urgent task is to prevent a nationwide outbreak through a level 2 plus alpha policy."

Professor Jung Jae-hoon of Gachon University College of Medicine's Department of Preventive Medicine emphasized, "Public vigilance has decreased, but suddenly upgrading to level 4 has lowered public acceptance of quarantine measures," stressing, "Ultimately, vaccination is the only solution, and the vaccination schedule for the third quarter target groups must be expedited."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.