[Agyeong Poll] Presidential Candidates Hypothetical Matchup: Lee Nak-yeon 43.5% vs Choi Jae-hyung 36.8%

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeon Jin-young]

In a hypothetical matchup between former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon and former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung, Lee leads Choi by 6.7 percentage points, widening the gap beyond the margin of error.

According to a poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from the 10th to 11th, surveying 1,011 voters nationwide aged 18 and older (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response), when asked "If former leader Lee and former chairman Choi face off in the next presidential election, whom would you support?" 43.5% chose Lee, 36.8% chose Choi. Other candidates accounted for 12.0%, none 5.8%, and unsure 1.9%.

Support for the two differed by gender and age. Lee led among women (47.7%) compared to men (39.2%). By age group, Lee was ahead among relatively younger voters: 20s (29.1%), 30s (56.9%), and 40s (57.7%). Conversely, Choi led among those aged 60 (55.6%) and 70 and above (55.0%).

Regionally, Lee was dominant in Gyeonggi·Incheon (45.6%), Honam (64.7%), and Gangwon·Jeju (43.9%), while Choi was ahead in the Chungcheong region (48.7%) and Daegu·Gyeongbuk (40.1%).

Regarding party support, 83.2% of Democratic Party supporters backed Lee, whereas 70.3% of People Power Party supporters supported Choi, indicating a lower consolidation among People Power Party supporters.

Looking only at Democratic Party supporters, responses varied depending on the ruling party candidate. In a hypothetical contest between former chairman Choi and Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, 68.9% chose Lee Jae-myung, while 83.2% supported former leader Lee Nak-yeon, showing differences in party consolidation depending on the candidate in the hypothetical matchup.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting nationwide among voters aged 18 and older from the 10th to 11th, with 1,011 respondents and an overall response rate of 7.5%. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.