If COVID-19 Outbreak Continues, 2,331 Cases Expected Mid-Next Month... All Arrivals Must Carry PCR Test Results (Update)

Expansion of Residential Treatment Centers Due to Surge in Mild Cases... Additional Epidemiological Investigation Personnel Added

On the first day of the Level 4 social distancing measures in the Seoul metropolitan area to prevent the spread of COVID-19, related notices are posted at the Jongno Academy Gangbuk Main Branch in Mapo-gu, Seoul on the 12th.
Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Seo So-jeong] The government has projected that if the current COVID-19 outbreak continues, the number of confirmed cases could rise to 2,331 by mid-next month. It anticipates that the outbreak will persist for a considerable period due to the continuous accumulation of asymptomatic and mild infections in the community and the rampant spread of the highly transmissible 'Delta variant' virus.

Accordingly, the government plans to strengthen medical response in the Seoul metropolitan area, where confirmed cases are concentrated, and accelerate epidemiological investigations to trace patients. Additionally, all international arrivals will be restricted from boarding aircraft if they do not possess pre-arrival PCR test results.

President Moon Jae-in chaired the 'Special Metropolitan Area COVID-19 Response Inspection Meeting' at the Blue House Yeomin-gwan from 2 p.m. on the 12th, announcing the strengthening of joint medical responses in the metropolitan area to block the spread of the fourth wave.

According to the Disease Control Agency's remodeling analysis, the current effective reproduction number is about 1.22. If this situation continues, confirmed cases are expected to increase to 2,331 by mid-next month before declining.

In the scenario where the fourth stage of 'social distancing' in the metropolitan area strongly controls the outbreak, the number of cases is expected to maintain the current level for a while and then decrease after two weeks, falling to around 600 cases by the end of August.

Securing a total of 5,354 beds in residential treatment centers... Expanding the scope of self-treatment

The government plans to proactively secure hospital beds considering that the fourth wave has higher infectivity but lower fatality rates compared to the third wave, with many cases occurring among people in their 20s and 30s. In particular, due to the rapid increase in mild cases, the government aims to secure a total of 5,354 beds in residential treatment centers by the fifth week of July.

As of the 11th, the metropolitan area's residential treatment centers have 6,784 beds with an occupancy rate of 75.8%. Going forward, Seoul plans to secure an additional 2,204 beds in university dormitories and private hotels; Gyeonggi Province will secure 1,636 beds in university dormitories and public institution training centers; Incheon will secure 814 beds in large company training centers and university dormitories; and the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters will secure 700 beds in public institution training centers.

Accordingly, residential treatment centers will operate 3,623 beds by the 18th through cooperation between the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters and local governments, and an additional 1,731 beds by the 31st. For patients who find it difficult to be admitted to residential treatment centers or those with mild symptoms and low transmission risk, plans to expand the scope of self-treatment to allow treatment at home are also being considered.

Furthermore, epidemiological investigation capabilities in the metropolitan area will be intensively strengthened. By the 14th, 12 central quarantine officers and epidemiologists will be dispatched to the field to support metropolitan epidemiological investigations, and cluster information based on confirmed patients' residences will be used to focus management on high-risk areas. From this day, an additional 250 epidemiological investigation personnel have been deployed: 158 in Seoul, 75 in Gyeonggi, and 17 in Incheon.

To block variant viruses, starting from the 15th, all international arrivals, not only from Indonesia, will be restricted from boarding aircraft if they do not possess pre-arrival PCR test results. Arrivals from high-risk countries such as South Africa, Tanzania, and India will be quarantined in facilities, and 21 countries with variant virus outbreaks will be excluded from quarantine exemptions based on vaccination.

The Central Disease Control Headquarters stated, "We will do our best to ensure that the fourth wave is controlled early by securing smooth vaccination, actively conducting testing and contact tracing, and ensuring compliance with the fourth stage of social distancing."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.