Authorities: "If the '4th wave' spread is not contained, confirmed cases may exceed 2,000 by the end of this month" (Comprehensive)

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, on the 8th, when the number of new confirmed cases reached a record high, citizens were waiting to get tested at the Seoul City Mobile Screening Clinic set up near Exit 11 of Gangnam Station in Seoul. The Central Disease Control Headquarters announced that as of midnight on the same day, 1,275 new confirmed cases were added, bringing the total to 164,028. Following the previous day's 1,212 cases, the number has remained in the 1,200s for two consecutive days. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Chun-hee] The quarantine authorities have officially declared the entry into the fourth wave of COVID-19. Furthermore, predictions indicate that if the current situation does not subside, the number of new confirmed cases could reach 2,140 by the end of this month.

Jung Eun-kyung, Commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), stated at the regular COVID-19 briefing on the afternoon of the 8th, "We consider the current situation as the entry phase of the fourth wave," adding, "If the situation worsens, the number of patients by the end of July is expected to exceed 2,000."

The quarantine authorities officially recognized the current situation as the fourth wave due to the rapid increase in the rate of confirmed cases. The average daily confirmed cases over the past week (July 1?7) were 769, a 53% increase compared to the previous three weeks (June 10?30) average of 503. In particular, the metropolitan area saw a 68% rise to 636 cases, with Seoul experiencing a sharp 78% increase to 357 cases. In contrast, non-metropolitan areas only saw a 7% increase.

However, Commissioner Jung evaluated that compared to the previous third wave, "Fortunately, preventive vaccinations for high-risk groups were conducted in the first half of the year, so outbreaks in nursing hospitals/facilities and medical institutions have not been significantly reported, and the fatality and severe case rates show considerably lower differences."

Jung Eun-kyung, Commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency [Photo by Yonhap News]

Commissioner Jung pointed to the Delta variant (Indian variant) and the rapid increase in cases among younger age groups as the changed risk factors of the fourth wave.

Recently, the detection rate of the Delta variant has been steadily increasing. In the past week (June 27?July 3), the detection rate of the Delta variant among domestic confirmed cases was 9.9%, about three times higher than the previous week (June 20?26) at 3.3%. The metropolitan area, which is considered to be under severe spread, also jumped from 4.5% to 12.7%.

Additionally, Commissioner Jung noted regarding the outbreak process, "In the past, cases and deaths were mostly among the elderly aged 50?60 and above, but recently, cases have increased among those under 60 who have not been vaccinated, especially the 20?30 age group with high activity levels," adding, "Because many are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms, it is difficult for them to recognize their infection, making early testing challenging, which is a different characteristic."

If the spread is not contained, confirmed cases will exceed 2,000 by the end of this month

If the current spread escalates uncontrollably, the quarantine authorities estimate that the number of confirmed cases could rise to 2,140 by the end of this month. This is based on mathematical modeling (S-E-Q-I-R) using the reproduction number jointly analyzed by the Central Disease Control Headquarters and private experts.

The reproduction number indicates how many people one confirmed case infects; if it exceeds 1, it means the spread is increasing. According to the authorities, the current reproduction number nationwide is estimated between 1.21 and 1.29, and in the metropolitan area, between 1.25 and 1.3.

According to the modeling, if the current spread level is maintained, the number of patients by the end of this month will reach around 1,400, but if the reproduction number worsens to 1.71, the number of confirmed cases is predicted to reach 2,140. Regarding this, Lee Sang-won, head of the Epidemiological Investigation and Analysis Division at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, explained, "(A reproduction number of 1.71) is the speed we saw during the previous wave," adding, "If we face the same situation again and the scenario turns negative, this is how it could be calculated."

COVID-19 4th Wave Trend According to the Effective Reproduction Number (Rt) (Source: Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency)

According to the authorities, the reproduction number during the previous third wave ranged from 0.79 to 1.52. The first wave recorded a very high reproduction number of 0.53 to 9.35, and the second wave ranged from 0.68 to 3.05, but these waves mainly occurred within clusters, so the reproduction number from the third wave is being referenced.

However, Commissioner Jung stated, "If active compliance with quarantine rules suppresses the spread, the number of patients can shift to a decline," adding, "Also, if vaccinations proceed as planned and quarantine rules such as social distancing are actively followed, it is estimated that the number of cases will decrease to a much lower level by the end of September." According to this analysis, the number of confirmed cases by the end of September could decrease to between 260 and 415 through increased vaccination rates.

Measures to adjust the interval between AstraZeneca (AZ) first and second doses are also expected to be reviewed in response to the outbreak.

Regarding whether it is necessary to advance the timing of the second dose for AZ vaccine recipients in relation to the outbreak, Commissioner Jung said, "Currently, the AZ vaccine is authorized for intervals between 4 and 12 weeks," adding, "We believe there is a need to adjust the dosing interval within the authorized range to strengthen the response to variants and enhance vaccination effectiveness." He further explained, "However, vaccine supply conditions and vaccination schedules at entrusted medical institutions must be considered, so we plan to prepare and implement realistic measures taking these into account."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.