When Alliances Shift, 'Lee Jae-myung's Dominance' Can't Be Guaranteed... The Ruling Party Race Begins

Cutoff on the 11th of Next Month, 'Party Sentiment' Decides
Jeong Seyeon and Lee Kwangjae Push for Unification, Lee Nakyeon Also Says "We Can Unite Our Intentions"

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] The race among the nine Democratic Party presidential candidates officially begins. Although the allotted time is the same, the starting lines differ. Candidates ranked lower in public opinion polls must first secure a spot among the six preliminary candidates who pass the cutoff. Since the cutoff is determined predominantly by party members and supporters, the results may differ from public opinion polls. The leading candidates are seeking unification strategies to surpass the 'number one' candidate, Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, after the cutoff. It is a battle between 'defense' and 'coordinated offensive comeback.'

On the 30th, Governor Lee Jae-myung, former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun, and former Minister of Justice Chu Mi-ae are scheduled to register as preliminary candidates for the Democratic Party presidential primary. Previously, former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon, Representative Park Yong-jin, Representative Kim Doo-kwan, Representative Lee Kwang-jae, Gangwon Province Governor Choi Moon-soon, and Chungnam Province Governor Yang Seung-jo had completed their registrations. With the lineup of nine candidates finalized, the full-scale competition, including TV debates, will commence. Governor Lee Jae-myung is set to announce his candidacy via a non-face-to-face video format on the 1st of next month, with slogans such as 'Great Transformation of the Republic of Korea.' Former leader Lee Nak-yeon plans to hold his declaration ceremony on the 5th of next month, the latest among the candidates.

The first hurdle is the cutoff on the 11th of next month, which will narrow the field to six candidates. Since former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun and Representative Lee Kwang-jae have agreed to unify, one of them will be eliminated, and two others must also be stopped.

According to Democratic Party regulations, the preliminary primary reflects 50% from national public opinion polls and 50% from party member opinion polls. The national public opinion polls target voters who have expressed support for the Democratic Party or no party affiliation. This means the majority are party members or supporters, with some influence from non-affiliated voters.

Recent various polls show Governor Lee Jae-myung maintaining a commanding lead in first place, with former leader Lee Nak-yeon closely trailing. Former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun, once considered part of the 'big three,' appears to be losing ground somewhat due to the entry of former Minister Chu Mi-ae and the momentum behind Representative Park Yong-jin.

The key to the cutoff, 'party sentiment,' differs somewhat from public opinion polls. According to a poll conducted by Asia Economy and WinG Korea Consulting (26th-27th), when asked only about Democratic Party candidates, the order was 'Lee Jae-myung - Lee Nak-yeon - Chu Mi-ae - Park Yong-jin - Kim Dong-yeon - Chung Sye-kyun.' However, when isolating only Democratic Party supporters, Representative Park Yong-jin trails former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun and does not have a significant gap from other lower-ranked candidates. From Park's perspective, the poll results are not reassuring.

The core point to watch in the Democratic Party primary is whether Governor Lee Jae-myung will be defeated. Currently, he maintains strong support, but unification strategies among other candidates could be a variable. The 'Chung Sye-kyun - Lee Kwang-jae' unification is just the beginning. Former leader Lee Nak-yeon stated on SBS Radio the previous day, "If people share similar thoughts, they can unite anywhere," adding, "This naturally applies to me as well."

The main primary will conduct a runoff between the top two candidates if no one achieves a majority vote. This structure allows for a possible 'last-minute turnaround.' Former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun recently said in a media interview, "It is difficult for one person to secure a majority. Ultimately, it will go to a runoff, and I could win in the runoff."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.