Australia Expected to Achieve Record High Raw Material Exports by Next Year

[Photo by AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Byunghee Park] The Australian government expects energy and raw material export values to hit record highs consecutively this year and next year. As the global economy moves out of the COVID-19 recession phase and shows clear signs of recovery, demand for raw materials continues to increase, and price rises are also anticipated.

According to Bloomberg on the 27th (local time), the Australian government forecasted that the raw material export value for the current 2021 fiscal year (July 2020 to June 2021), ending this month, will reach a record high of AUD 310 billion. It further expects the next 2022 fiscal year to increase by about 7.7% to AUD 334 billion, breaking the record once again, before declining to AUD 304 billion in the 2023 fiscal year. The 2023 fiscal year is expected to see a slowdown in economic growth and a drop in raw material prices.

In a recent quarterly report, the Australian government stated that spending demand continues in many countries due to housing and infrastructure expansion, which underpins these projections.

The Australian government expects coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export values to continue rising until next year. Although iron ore exports are expected to decrease from their record highs, the export share of key battery materials such as copper, nickel, and lithium is expected to grow.

However, factors such as inflation, central bank tightening measures, and COVID-19 vaccine distribution could pose variables. Trade conflicts with China were also identified as a variable. According to the report, China accounted for 45% of Australia's energy and raw material exports last year.

The Australian government forecasted that iron ore export value for the 2021 fiscal year will reach AUD 149 billion. This was an upward revision from the AUD 136 billion forecast in the March report. It expects the 2022 fiscal year to decline to AUD 137 billion. The average iron ore price is expected to record USD 150 per ton this year and fall below USD 100 per ton by the end of next year.

Nickel prices are expected to average USD 17,360 this year, 26% higher than last year. Copper prices are expected to record USD 8,840 per ton this year and fall to USD 7,890 in 2023. The scale of copper exports is expected to gradually increase to AUD 13 billion. Nickel export value is also expected to double in the 2022 fiscal year, reaching AUD 2 billion.

Meanwhile, the Australian government lowered its long-term population projections, stating that COVID-19 will have a long-term impact. The government expects the current population of 26 million to increase to 38.8 million by 2061. The previous 2015 projection anticipated that Australia's population would reach 40 million by 2056.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.