Iran Nuclear Talks Suspended After Raisi's Election... Will They Ultimately Fail? (Comprehensive)

Iran Delegation Temporarily Halts Negotiations... "Returning to Tehran"
Israel Strongly Opposes Talks... "Executioner Professor in Power"

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] In the Iranian presidential election, hardline conservative Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi, head of the judiciary, secured a landslide victory, casting a shadow over the restoration talks of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA - Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) that have been ongoing since April. The Iranian delegation temporarily suspended negotiations and returned home, citing the need to coordinate opinions with their home country, raising concerns about the potential collapse of the talks. Some speculate that the Iranian government will engage in negotiations until Raisi takes office in August, but afterward, there are worried forecasts that the negotiations themselves could be reset to square one.

According to foreign media including the Associated Press on the 20th (local time), Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister who has been leading the nuclear deal negotiations in Vienna, Austria since April, said in an interview with Iranian state TV, "We will return to Tehran today, and this is for decision-making." He added, "We are closer to an agreement than ever before, but there is still some distance to the conclusion, and bridging that gap is not an easy task."

The Iranian delegation's announcement to temporarily suspend negotiations for coordination with their home country is interpreted as a response to the recently announced Iranian presidential election results. In particular, with hardline conservative Raisi, who won a landslide victory with 62% of the vote, expected to begin formal transition work ahead of assuming power on August 3, attention is focused on how the Iranian government's stance on the nuclear deal negotiations might change.

According to CNN, President-elect Raisi is known as a hardliner with strong anti-American tendencies and has repeatedly made hardline remarks about the need to eliminate Israel from the earth. Additionally, since 2019, as head of the judiciary, he has been responsible for various inhumane human rights abuses, including executions and torture of thousands of Iranian political prisoners, and is listed on the U.S. sanctions list against Iran. Due to this, concerns have arisen that Raisi's landslide victory could lead to the collapse of the Iran nuclear deal.

Israel also strongly criticized Raisi's election and issued a statement opposing the Iran nuclear deal. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett stated in a cabinet meeting, "We must not hand over weapons of mass destruction to a country ruled by an executioner," emphasizing, "Israel's new government will follow the policy of the previous Benjamin Netanyahu government, which firmly opposed Iran acquiring nuclear weapons." It is reported that discussions about attacks on nuclear facilities are even taking place within the Israeli military.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government has emphasized that the ultimate decision-maker on the Iran nuclear deal is not the Iranian president but the Supreme Leader of Iran, cautioning against overinterpretation. Jake Sullivan, U.S. National Security Advisor, said in an interview with ABC News, "The ultimate decision on whether to return to the nuclear deal rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and regardless of who becomes president in this election, the Supreme Leader remains unchanged." He stressed, "The U.S. will continue to monitor the negotiation situation to see where the ball goes."

The current president, Hassan Rouhani, who has been leading the nuclear deal negotiations, will remain in office until early August. For the time being, it appears that President-elect Raisi will avoid commenting on this issue as much as possible. However, if the negotiations are not concluded by then, analysts suggest that the nuclear deal will effectively become impossible. The Times of Israel reported, "Raisi will try to shift all responsibility related to the success or failure of the Iran nuclear deal onto the Rouhani administration and start fresh," adding, "If negotiations fail by the time Raisi's administration takes office on August 3, the agreement will likely become impossible."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.