Iran, Hardline Conservative Candidate's Support Approaches 70%... Centrist Voters Boycott Election

Expected Voter Turnout in the 40% Range Due to Centrist Voter Abstention
Hardline Conservatives Likely to Control Both Parliament and Government

[Image source=Iran National Press TV]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] A poll conducted by Iran's state media revealed that hardline conservative candidate Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi's approval rating is approaching 70%. Analysts suggest that the approval rating increased as Iran's top leadership openly expressed support for Raisi, leading moderate and reformist candidates to be largely eliminated, which caused disappointed moderates to boycott the vote.

On the 17th (local time), Iran's state Press TV reported that in the final poll conducted ahead of the presidential election, Raisi's approval rating was 68.9%. This is more than 10% higher than the 55.6% recorded in the poll released on the 8th. The second place was also a hardline conservative candidate, former Revolutionary Guard member Mohsen Rezaei, who recorded 8.1%, while Abdolnaser Hemmati, the only moderate reformist candidate opposing Raisi, came in third with 4.6%.

This result is widely seen as expected, as Iran's leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, openly supported Raisi. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) pointed out, "With Iran's leadership eliminating many moderate and reformist candidates, Raisi's victory has already been anticipated," adding, "Young people have declared a large-scale voting boycott, so voter turnout is expected to be significantly low." Iran's state Press TV also expects the voter turnout for this election to be only 47.3%. In the previous Iranian presidential election, turnout was close to 78%.

In May, the Guardian Council, which selects Iran's presidential candidates, suddenly adopted a new requirement for candidates to hold at least a master's degree, eliminating many moderate reformist candidates and causing significant controversy within Iran. The 12-member Guardian Council can be appointed by Supreme Leader Khamenei, leading to criticism that Iran's top leadership has directly moved to ensure Raisi's election in the presidential race.

In February, hardline conservatives already took control of the parliament in the general election, raising concerns that if a hardline conservative candidate is elected president in this election, Iran's hardline stance on foreign policy will intensify further.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.