[Global Issue+] Israel and Palestine Worry About 'Game 5' Immediately After Ceasefire

4th Clash Since 2008 First Engagement
Jerusalem, with 40% Palestinian Population, Remains a Flashpoint
Additional Full-Scale War Unlikely Due to Concerns Over Aid Suspension

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Although the fighting between Israel and the Palestinian armed group Hamas, which lasted for more than 10 days, has ceased, it is reported that both Israeli and Palestinian residents are already concerned about the resumption of war. The two sides have engaged in four rounds of conflict since the first clash in 2008, and the religious and ethnic tensions in Jerusalem, which have always been the spark for war, remain unresolved, making it unsurprising if war breaks out again at any time.

However, since both Israel and Palestine are currently facing severe economic difficulties, the prevailing analysis suggests that the likelihood of another large-scale full-scale war, with the risk of international support being cut off, is low.

Jerusalem's 'Temple Mount,' Always Carrying the Spark of War

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

According to foreign media such as the British BBC on the 22nd (local time), the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which led the mediation of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, announced that it is currently pushing for follow-up talks between Israel and Palestine. The negotiations are known to be aimed at solidifying the incomplete ceasefire, which was temporarily sealed unconditionally, and leading it to a long-term ceasefire rather than a short-term one.

However, no matter what negotiations are concluded, concerns remain high about when religious and ethnic conflicts might explode again, as the issue of Jerusalem's 'Temple Mount,' which has always acted as a spark for war, remains unresolved. The conflicts between Israel and Hamas have involved four full-scale wars starting from the first clash in 2008, then in 2012, 2014, and this year. Each time, the Temple Mount was the spark for war.

According to the Times of Israel, the highest Jewish leaders in Israel have issued a statement that Jews should not enter the Temple Mount. Since the cause of this war was the extremist Jewish groups' 'Jerusalem Day' event held at the Temple Mount, they prohibited entry to avoid any clashes with the Palestinian side. However, extremist Jewish groups continue to resist.

The 'Jerusalem Day' event, commemorating the occupation of Jerusalem during the 1967 Six-Day War, is considered a national holiday to be celebrated not only by Judaism but also by Israel. These groups are known to share political sympathies with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and far-right forces within Israel.

The problem is that 40% of Jerusalem's residents are Palestinians. Despite criticisms that the Jerusalem Day event is highly insulting to Palestinians who have lived in Jerusalem for centuries and were suddenly displaced, the event continues. Moreover, Palestinian residents, even those with housing rights, are treated like colonial subjects, excluded from voting rights, eligibility for election, and various welfare benefits, so the spark for war always remains.

Palestinian Authority Unable to Control Hamas Also a Problem

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

Meanwhile, it is reported that Palestinian residents who suffered severe damage in this war greatly resent Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestinian Authority. This criticism stems from the fact that the Palestinian Authority failed to control Hamas, which initiated the conflict, and was an incompetent regime that did not effectively evacuate residents from Israeli attacks or provide aid.

The Palestinian Authority operates under a semi-presidential system, where Mahmoud Abbas holds the position of head of state, but real power is held by Hamas, which controls the parliament. Gaza Strip, where elections were originally planned for this month, had already lost public support due to Hamas's declining popularity amid failures in COVID-19 response and economic difficulties, leading to an indefinite postponement of the elections. Some have pointed out that Hamas's initiation of the conflict had political motives related to this situation.

Despite this tyranny, the Palestinian Authority has been unable to control Hamas at all. Hamas, which came to power in Gaza with overwhelming support after the 2006 armed conflict with Israel, now in its 15th year of rule, controls not only military power but also all major economic sectors of Palestine.

'Money' Suppresses War on Both Israeli and Palestinian Sides

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Although the spark of war remains, the prevailing outlook is that the financial situations that led both sides to a ceasefire will continue to deteriorate significantly, making it difficult for either side to engage in full-scale war for some time. Prolonged lockdowns due to COVID-19 and reduced foreign trade have left neither side with the capacity for a long-term conflict.

It is also reported that the reason Israeli hardliners, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, who had persistently advocated for continued fighting, turned to support a ceasefire was due to concerns over reduced U.S. military aid. The U.S. provides Israel with massive annual support of $3.8 billion (approximately 4.2845 trillion KRW), but with last year's economic growth rate at -4.5% and the economic damage from COVID-19 not yet healed, Israel lacks the economic power to independently sustain the conflict.

Hamas also reportedly accepted the ceasefire mediation more quickly than before because failing to resolve the economic crisis could provoke strong backlash from Gaza residents. When Egypt's mediation proposal was accompanied by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) signaling a halt to Palestinian aid, Hamas immediately accepted the mediation proposal.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the largest investors in a $50 billion Palestinian infrastructure development project jointly promoted under former U.S. President Donald Trump's initiative. Since this project is a lifeline for the entire Palestinian population, even Hamas, which receives military support from Iran, had no choice but to accept the ceasefire mediation.

The recent U.S. government's designation of Hamas as a terrorist organization is also expected to empower the Palestinian Authority and weaken Hamas's willingness to fight. Since Hamas, now designated as a terrorist group, will be unable to lead infrastructure development projects, the Palestinian Authority is expected to control the financial resources. This is why the dominant view is that, until the economic crisis is fully resolved, even if provocations occur, it will be difficult to escalate to full-scale war.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.