[AK Opinion Poll] Oh Se-hoon Leads Park Young-sun by 19.2%p

Oh Se-hoon 55%, Park Young-sun 35.8%
Oh Se-hoon Leads in Support Across All Genders and Age Groups

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] In a public opinion poll conducted just before the ban period on publishing poll results, Oh Se-hoon, the candidate from the People Power Party, was found to be leading Park Young-sun, the candidate from the Democratic Party of Korea, by a margin of 19.2 percentage points in the April 7 Seoul mayoral by-election.

Asia Economy commissioned Win-Gi Korea Consulting to conduct the poll over two days, March 30 and 31, targeting 1,020 men and women aged 18 and older residing in Seoul (100% wireless ARS, with a sampling error of ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). Candidate Oh received 55% support, surpassing the majority, while candidate Park received 35.8%.

Compared to the previous poll conducted on March 6 and 7, the gap in support between the two candidates widened. In that earlier poll, Oh had 49.3% support and Park had 39.5%, showing a 9.8 percentage point difference. Since then, Oh’s support increased by 5.7 percentage points, while Park’s support decreased by 3.7 percentage points.

Oh led in all age groups except for those in their 40s. Notably, he showed strong support among those aged 70 and above at 71.8%, those in their 60s at 66.1%, and those in their 50s at 59.9%. Park only led among voters in their 40s, with 52% support.

Oh received over 50% support across all gender and regional categories. By gender, 58.7% of men and 51.6% of women expressed support for Oh. In contrast, 33.2% of men and 38.2% of women supported Park.

Among People Power Party supporters, 96.2% expressed support for Oh, while 86.2% of Democratic Party supporters backed Park. With People Power Party supporters making up 34% of all respondents and Democratic Party supporters 32.6%, the People Power Party also showed stronger voter consolidation.

Among supporters of President Moon Jae-in, 77.3% supported Park, while 12.7% supported Oh. Conversely, among respondents who did not support President Moon, 87.9% supported Oh, and only 4% supported Park.

Oh showed strong support in the downtown area with 71%, 52.6% in the northeast, 46.5% in the northwest, 51% in the southwest, and 65.1% in the southeast. Park’s support was 24.3% in the downtown area, 38.6% in the northeast, 40.1% in the northwest, 38.8% in the southwest, and 27.9% in the southeast.

This poll was conducted among eligible voters aged 18 and older residing in Seoul from March 30 to 31, with an overall response rate of 6.8%, totaling 1,020 respondents. The survey method was 100% wireless ARS using virtual mobile phone numbers. The sample was extracted using weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-Gi Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

According to the Public Official Election Act, the publication of poll results was prohibited from April 1 to 8 p.m. on April 7, but it is allowed to publish or report on poll results conducted up to March 31 during this period.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.