Early Voting 'Different Dreams'... Higher Turnout Favoring Progressives? Is It Different This Time?

Democratic Party: "Strong early voting participation of 4050 supporters is key"
People Power Party: "Vote early without doubt"... "Must lead to a vote to judge the regime"

An early voting station to be set up in the Seoul Station waiting room is being prepared on the 31st, two days before the Seoul mayoral by-election early voting./Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

[Asia Economy Reporters Park Cheol-eung, Oh Ju-yeon, Lee Hyun-joo] As early voting for the by-elections on the 2nd and 3rd approaches, both ruling and opposition parties are actively encouraging voting. However, their calculations differ, reflecting a ‘same bed, different dreams’ scenario. While the conventional consensus has been that higher voter turnout benefits progressive parties, this election is marked by strong calls for regime judgment, and opinion polls show that the younger demographic leans toward the conservative opposition, leading to different interpretations. Nevertheless, from the ruling party’s perspective, it is crucial to ensure that their traditional support base, mainly those in their 40s and 50s, turn out to vote as much as possible.

According to political circles on the 1st, the Democratic Party of Korea is running a campaign called ‘We met by 1 (il) and 4 (sa), 2 (i), 3 (sam).’ They are urging voters to actively participate in early voting on the 2nd and 3rd and to select candidate number 1, which is the Democratic Party’s number. Since the main voting day on the 7th falls on a weekday, the message encourages people to vote early and then go to work. Members of the party, including the youth lawmakers’ group ‘Maeum Jupjup Campaign Team’ dedicated to the by-election, are putting considerable effort into promoting early voting.

After being put on the defensive due to the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) scandal, the Democratic Party is conducting a ‘finding acquaintances’ campaign targeting all party members. They are even tracking results by individual lawmakers and regional organizational units. This strategy aims to maximize organizational strength and consolidate the support base as much as possible, making early voting rates critically important. Former Democratic Party leader Lee Hae-chan appeared on TBS Radio’s ‘Kim Eo-jun’s News Factory’ on the same day, stating, "Since the main voting day on Wednesday is not a public holiday, how much early voting office workers do is a key concern," adding, "Our strong support base is generally people in their 40s and up to mid-50s. Observing their turnout gives a good indication."

According to the National Election Commission, Seoul has about 8.42 million eligible voters, with those in their 40s and 50s each accounting for 18%, totaling 36%. The Democratic Party’s landslide victory in last April’s general election was partly attributed to an early voting rate of 26.7%, which was 6.6 percentage points higher than in the 2018 local elections. Early voters showed stronger support for the ruling party compared to those voting on the main day. Some conservatives even raised allegations of early voting manipulation.

This time, the situation is different. Kim Jong-in, the emergency committee chairman of the People Power Party, recently said, "After experiencing the last general election, many of our party supporters are suspicious of early voting," adding, "Our party’s position is to ask people not to harbor such suspicions and to participate actively in early voting." This is interpreted as showing confidence amid various opinion polls indicating a significant lead.

A Realmeter poll commissioned by Newsis, conducted from the 30th to 31st of last month among 806 Seoul residents aged 18 and older, showed People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon leading with 57.5%, ahead of Democratic Party candidate Park Young-sun, who stood at 36.0%, by more than 21 percentage points. The margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Oh led significantly across all age groups, with a lead within the margin of error among those in their 40s and 50s.

Jung Yang-seok, secretary-general of the People Power Party, told Asia Economy in a phone interview, "Connecting voter turnout with conservative or progressive leanings is a myth and not necessarily accurate," adding, "There is a rare public sentiment for regime judgment and change, which should translate into votes. We don’t elect mayors based solely on opinion polls, do we?"

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.