Support Consolidation Between Ruling and Opposition Parties Has Begun

LH and Other Negative Factors Unresolved but
Moon Jae-in's Approval Rating Stops Falling and Rebounds

With just over a week left until the April 7 by-elections, the consolidation of forces between the ruling and opposition parties is intensifying. According to two public opinion polls released on the 29th, President Moon Jae-in's approval rating remained in the 30% range, but showed a slight increase compared to the previous surveys. Support for political parties also rose for both major parties. However, the increase was significantly higher for the People Power Party, indicating a rapid consolidation around the opposition.

On the same day, Realmeter conducted a public opinion poll commissioned by YTN from April 22 to 26, surveying 2,516 voters aged 18 and older on their evaluation of President Moon's administration. The negative evaluation rose by 0.3 percentage points from the previous week to 62.5%, the highest since the current government took office. The gap between positive and negative evaluations was 28.1 percentage points, which is outside the margin of error (the sampling error is ±2.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level).

The Korean Social Opinion Institute (KSOI) released a similar poll on the same day. Commissioned by TBS, the survey was conducted from April 26 to 27 with 1,016 adults aged 18 and older. President Moon's approval rating increased by 3.5 percentage points from the previous week to 37.5%. Negative evaluations decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 59.6%, narrowing the positive-negative gap to 22.1 percentage points, about 7 percentage points less than the previous week.

Party support also rose for both the ruling and opposition parties compared to the previous week. The People Power Party increased by 3.5 percentage points, and the Democratic Party of Korea by 3.4 percentage points, both rising by about 3 percentage points. KSOI analyzed this as a sign that party support consolidation is beginning as the election approaches. However, the People Power Party showed a much larger increase. Party support stood at 33.8% for the People Power Party and 30.6% for the Democratic Party of Korea.

In the Realmeter poll, party support also rose for both the Democratic Party of Korea (0.2 percentage points) and the People Power Party (3.5 percentage points), but the increase was much greater for the People Power Party. Overall support was 28.3% for the Democratic Party of Korea and 39.0% for the People Power Party. Notably, the People Power Party's support, nearing 40%, reached its highest level since the party's founding.

In Seoul, where the April 7 mayoral by-election is taking place, support for the People Power Party rose by 2.3 percentage points from the previous week to 41.2%, while the Democratic Party stood at 25.6%. In the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions, the People Power Party (42.1%) also led the Democratic Party of Korea (24.4%).

Meanwhile, according to a Realmeter survey commissioned by OhmyNews conducted from April 22 to 26 with 2,547 men and women aged 18 and older nationwide (response rate 6.5%), former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl's preference as the next presidential candidate rose sharply to 34.4%, up from 15.5% in last month's survey. Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung's support dropped by 2.2 percentage points from the February survey to 21.4%, creating a 13.0 percentage point gap with Yoon, which is outside the margin of error (±1.9 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon fell by 3.6 percentage points to 11.9%. For more details, please refer to the Realmeter website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.