'O Sehun + Ahn Cheolsoo = Victory?'... How Much of Ahn Cheolsoo's Vote Will Go to O Sehun?

Ahn Cheol-soo Supporters Do Not Immediately Shift to Oh Se-hoon
30-40% of Supporters Back 'Park Young-sun' or 'No Preferred Candidate'
Future Direction of Support Depends on Ahn Cheol-soo's Active Campaigning

Park Young-sun, the Democratic Party candidate for Seoul mayor, Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party candidate for Seoul mayor, and Ahn Cheol-soo, the People's Party candidate for Seoul mayor, are greeting each other at an event held on the 17th at the Shilla Hotel in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

[Asia Economy reporters Naju-seok and Park Jun-i] Attention is focused on whether a ‘net gain effect’ will emerge, with supporters of Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, backing Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party candidate, following the unification of opposition candidates for Seoul mayor. This is expected to largely depend on Ahn’s future campaign actions. Depending on the situation, it could result in a ‘positive effect of unification’ described as a chemical bond beyond mere physical combination, or conversely, it could have a negative impact.

Analyzing polling trends on the 24th, it was confirmed that about 30-40% of Ahn’s supporters do not immediately support candidate Oh. According to a poll commissioned by JTBC to Realmeter, conducted from the 20th to 21st among 1,007 adult Seoul citizens (wireless ARS, 95% confidence level with ±3.1% margin of error), only 54.2% of voters who expressed support for Ahn in a multi-candidate race decided to support Oh in the two-candidate race (Park Young-sun vs. Oh Se-hoon). The remaining 29.6% said they had no preferred candidate, meaning ‘there is no one to vote for except Ahn Cheol-soo.’ Additionally, 9.6% switched their support to Park Young-sun, the Democratic Party candidate.

Similar results were found in a poll commissioned by JoongAng Ilbo to Ipsos, conducted from the 19th to 20th among 1,002 adult Seoul citizens (landline telephone interviews, 95% confidence level with ±3.1% margin of error). Among respondents who supported Ahn in the three-way race, 64.9% expressed support for Oh in the two-candidate race (Park Young-sun vs. Oh Se-hoon). Those with no preferred candidate accounted for 15.7%, and 12.6% supported Park (for detailed polling data, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website). This suggests that the unification of Oh Se-hoon plus (+) Ahn Cheol-soo may not lead to a simple sum of their support rates, and a significant number of votes could be lost. Capturing these votes will be a major focus for the Oh Se-hoon campaign.

Experts believe that the movement of the support base will depend on how actively Ahn assists candidate Oh going forward. Ahn Il-won, CEO of Research View, said, “The key point to watch is whether 1+1 will equal 1 or more,” adding, “Ahn’s supporters may be disappointed and abstain from voting, but they could also rally behind Oh, creating upward momentum.” Bae Cheol-ho, senior researcher at Realmeter, forecasted, “Depending on Ahn’s actions, it could be a plus or a minus. For unification to be complete, Ahn must campaign for Oh as if it were his own election.”

Meanwhile, on the same day, Kim Jong-in, emergency committee chairman of the People Power Party, began efforts to win votes in the Honam region. Chairman Kim visited the National May 18th Democratic Cemetery in Buk-gu, Gwangju, to pay respects to the victims and held a meeting with May 18th organizations at the Kim Dae-jung Convention Center in Seo-gu. This is interpreted as a party-level expression of intent to attract the votes of Honam natives, who are known to make up more than 30% of Seoul citizens, ahead of the official start of the election campaign.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.