O Se-hoon and Ahn Cheol-soo's Unification Calculations... What Are the Competitiveness, Wired and Wireless?

From Survey Questions to Phone Targets, Comparative Analysis of Unification Keywords

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jun-yi] Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party candidate, and Ahn Cheol-soo, the People’s Party candidate, who are pushing for unification in the Seoul mayoral by-election, continue to engage in daily tug-of-war over the unification method even after the candidate registration deadline has passed. On the 19th, Ahn expressed his willingness to generously accept Oh’s proposal, but interpretations differ on which proposal he is accepting. Oh also indicated a willingness to concede, but in reality, there has been no progress in the unification discussions between the two sides. We compared the differences and key points of suitability, competitiveness, virtual matchups, and landline versus mobile methods that have emerged during the unification process.

Competitiveness? Suitability? Virtual Matchup?

Seoul mayoral candidate Oh Se-hoon of the People Power Party and Seoul mayoral candidate Ahn Cheol-soo of the People Party [Image source=Yonhap News]

In general, survey results can vary depending on the questions asked. Especially in elections, where interests are intertwined, every word in the question is considered important. Ilwon Ahn, CEO of ResearchView, explained, “During the 2012 presidential election unification between Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo, the process broke down over how to phrase the questions. When two candidates are neck and neck, even a slight difference in wording can determine the outcome.”

The competitiveness question that Ahn’s side has advocated so far asks, “Which candidate is more competitive when facing the opposing candidate?” Ahn’s camp argues that since the purpose of this opposition unification is to select a single candidate who can defeat the ruling party candidate, the question itself should reflect this. Cheol-ho Bae, a Realmeter expert, analyzed, “From Ahn’s perspective, it is natural to demand a virtual matchup, i.e., competitiveness question. Early-year polls showed Ahn’s virtual matchup results were close to those of the ruling party candidate.”

On the other hand, the suitability question proposed by Oh’s side asks, “Who do you think is suitable as the Seoul mayor?” which is a commonly used question in opinion polls.

A ‘virtual matchup’ method, which was specified during negotiations, also appeared. This asks not about suitability or competitiveness but “Who would you choose between Park Young-sun vs. Oh Se-hoon and Park Young-sun vs. Ahn Cheol-soo?” On the 17th, Lee Tae-gyu, Secretary-General of the People’s Party, explained to reporters before the inter-party working-level meeting, “Virtual matchup is not new as a method to measure competitiveness. Although Oh said it was new, all media outlets are already conducting virtual matchups.”

Why the Landline vs. Mobile Difference Matters

Lee Tae-gyu, Secretary General of the People’s Party, and Jeong Yang-seok, Secretary General of the People Power Party [Image source=Yonhap News]

Another contentious issue in the unification negotiations is the selection of survey targets, specifically the ratio of landline phone owners to mobile phone owners. The People Power Party has insisted on including at least 10% landline calls, while the People’s Party has countered that the survey should be conducted with 100% mobile phones.

Whether to include landline phones in the survey can affect the outcome. For example, Kantar Korea conducted a ‘Suitability of Opposition Unified Candidate’ survey (cell-weighted) on the 13th for Chosun Ilbo and TV Chosun, surveying 806 Seoul citizens aged 18 and over with 85% mobile and 15% landline calls, where Oh led with 36.8% over Ahn’s 31.5%. Conversely, Next Research conducted a ‘Suitability of Opposition Candidate’ survey (cell-weighted) on the same day for SBS, surveying 1,008 Seoul citizens aged 18 and over with 100% mobile calls, where Ahn led with 36.1% over Oh’s 32.3%. (Details of each poll can be found on the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.)

Notably, landline phone owners tend to include a higher proportion of elderly people, which is related to party and candidate support bases. This method tends to reflect the opinions of the conservative and elderly supporters who back the People Power Party. In response to this criticism, the People Power Party explained, “Including landline calls is essential to reflect the opinions of all Seoul voters, including vulnerable groups who cannot even use mobile phones,” and “Most credible private polling agencies also include about 20% landline calls.”

On the other hand, Secretary-General Lee rebutted on the 17th, saying, “The People Power Party conducted polls only with safe numbers during the primary,” and “The safe numbers obtained from the National Election Commission are a standard and common method.”

'Oh Se-hoon Proposal' vs. 'Ahn Cheol-soo Proposal'

Ahn Cheol-soo, the People's Party candidate for Seoul mayor, is holding a press conference on the 19th at the National Assembly Communication Office regarding the "unification with Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party candidate for Seoul mayor." Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

The conflict between the two sides was temporarily resolved on the 19th with the candidates’ agreement. However, as both candidates expressed willingness to concede, the key issue now is “which proposal to accept.” The Oh Se-hoon proposal that Ahn said he would accept in the afternoon was summarized as “reflecting competitiveness and suitability each at 50%, but asking respondents only one of the two questions?either suitability or competitiveness.” It also included 10% landline calls.

Subsequently, Oh also agreed to a 50-50 mixed ratio of competitiveness and suitability but then said he would accept Ahn’s 100% mobile phone proposal, causing last-minute confusion. The two sides plan to resume discussions from the 20th. Attention is focused on whether the previous tug-of-war over concessions will turn into a tug-of-war over accepting the concessions they themselves made.

Meanwhile, Oh and Ahn agreed the day before to restart the working-level negotiation team without any attendees. Both sides also agreed that negotiations must be completed by the 24th, before the official election campaign begins.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.