Outlined Biden Korea Policy... 'Sanctions on North Korea'

North Korea's Vivid Warning Rejects Backchannel Talks
US Carrot Strategy Loses Justification
North Korea Policy Expected to Be Announced by the End of This Month

[Asia Economy Reporters Inho Yoo, Military Specialist Nakgyu Yang, Jieun Lee] The top priority of the Biden administration's North Korea policy is likely to be "sanctions against North Korea." This is because North Korea rejected the U.S.'s behind-the-scenes dialogue proposals and even issued a harsh warning to the Biden administration, saying, "Don't give us reasons to lose sleep." As a result, the U.S. no longer has justification to offer carrot incentives. However, the U.S. plans to continue diplomatic efforts through South Korea-U.S. and South Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral cooperation to bring North Korea to the negotiating table, so the level of North Korea policy may vary depending on North Korea's future attitude or provocations.

According to diplomatic sources on the 16th, the Biden administration is expected to complete its review of North Korea policy after about two months and officially announce the details as early as the end of this month or by early April at the latest. Considering that some speculated the policy review could continue until summer, this is a relatively fast pace. Relatedly, Sung Kim, Acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said during a conference call on March 12 regarding the visits of Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to South Korea and Japan, "There is no exact timetable for when the North Korea policy review will end, but we are moving quickly," adding, "It could be completed within weeks."

The early completion of the U.S. North Korea policy review appears related to North Korea signaling that it still prefers provocations over negotiations even after the Biden administration took office. In other words, the U.S. may have early on decided to pressure North Korea through maintaining and strengthening sanctions rather than offering incentives. Accordingly, unlike the impulsive and unilateral North Korea policy of the Trump administration, the Biden administration plans to take a cautious approach involving thorough prior coordination with allies and detailed policy reviews by working-level officials.

Meanwhile, the U.S. sought to clarify North Korea's intentions regarding working-level North Korea-U.S. negotiations, but North Korea rejected this. As a result, the Biden administration is expected to maintain the current sanctions stance or possibly take even stronger measures depending on North Korea's attitude. Secretary Blinken's recent interview with a U.S. broadcaster, where he said, "We are reviewing the overall North Korea policy and additional sanctions are possible," supports this view.

The U.S. is expected to inform the South Korean and Japanese governments of its intention to maintain or strengthen sanctions during this visit and request close cooperation. On the 17th, Secretaries Blinken and Austin will visit South Korea and hold separate meetings with Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong and Defense Minister Suh Wook, followed by a 2+2 meeting the next day. At the first South Korea-U.S. 2+2 meeting in over five years, the U.S. side is expected to explain its nearly finalized North Korea policy plan to South Korea and conduct final coordination, including policy suggestions from South Korea. Shin Bum-chul, head of the Foreign and Security Center at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, said, "The Biden administration is expected to maintain sanctions while suppressing North Korea's provocations," adding, "Whether North Korea's provocations are conventional or strategic, the scale and timing will be closely monitored."

For the U.S. to shift its North Korea policy stance from "stick" (sanctions) to "carrot" (incentives), a change in North Korea's attitude is a prerequisite. However, currently, the possibility of North Korea halting provocations is low. This year's South Korea-U.S. joint exercises were minimized without outdoor field maneuvers due to COVID-19, reducing North Korea's justification for provocations, but the possibility of North Korea resorting to provocations at any time depending on circumstances cannot be ruled out. Last year, North Korea conducted missile provocations and large-scale firepower exercises around the time of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises in March.

Some speculate that the Biden administration may continue exploratory efforts with North Korea in mind for North Korea-U.S. nuclear negotiations, possibly avoiding overt major conflicts or clashes for the time being. In such a case, the U.S. is expected to try to bring North Korea to the negotiating table through the South Korea-U.S alliance, U.S.-Japan alliance, and trilateral South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation and pressure.

Professor Kim Dong-yeop of Gyeongnam National University said, "The U.S. is likely to maintain current levels of sanctions for the time being, but the level could change depending on North Korea's attitude," adding, "Sanctions against North Korea may be carried out more through cooperation with allies (South Korea, U.S., Japan) than through international sanctions alone."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.