[Global Focus] Navalni Threatening Putin's Throne... The Revolutionary Raised by 'Economic Crisis'

Transformation of Law Student-Turned Entrepreneur...Famous as 'Putin Sniper'
Putin's Approval Rating Fluctuates with Global Oil Prices...20-Year Dictatorship 'Shaken'
Limitations as Far-Right Extremist...Considering Alliances with Other Opposition Forces

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] On the 14th (local time), despite the severe cold of minus 15 degrees Celsius and over 60 cm of heavy snowfall in major Russian cities such as Moscow and Saint Petersburg, hundreds of supporters of opposition leader Alexei Navalny (photo) gathered to demand his release. Women participating in the protest performed a line formation holding long white ribbons together in their hands. This was to show solidarity with imprisoned Navalny, other political prisoners, and Navalny’s wife Yulia Navalnaya, who fled to Germany.

The issue of releasing Russian opposition politician Navalny has expanded from an internal political matter to an international diplomatic issue, putting the Russian authorities in a difficult position. The Russian government belittles his popularity by calling him the “blogger Navalny,” but he has undeniably emerged as the greatest threat to President Vladimir Putin’s 20-year authoritarian regime. Navalny, who suddenly entered politics in 2000 and rose as a “Putin sniper,” is analyzed to have gained popularity due to the deep-rooted corruption in Russian society and the economic structure overly dependent on oil resources.

◇ From Prestigious University Law Student to Putin’s Sniper

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

According to Russian local media such as The Moscow Times, Navalny was born in 1976 near Kyiv, the current capital of Ukraine, before the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and is of Ukrainian descent. He later majored in law at the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia in Moscow, known as a prestigious university. After becoming a lawyer, he also majored in finance at the Moscow Financial University. After graduating from university, he is known to have devoted some time to economic activities as a lawyer and entrepreneur.

He entered politics in 2000. After several failed startups and bankruptcies, he became dissatisfied with the widespread corruption in Russian society and the way personal connections severely hinder business activities. Navalny joined the Russian socialist party “Yabloko” with the aim of eradicating corruption and began working as a blogger exposing government corruption. After leaving Yabloko in 2007 to pursue independent political activities, he raised donations following the 2008 financial crisis to establish an activist fund. Using this fund, Navalny demanded disclosure of accounting data from Russian state-owned oil and gas companies, exposing accounting fraud and collusion with the government, which earned him popular support.

◇ Oil Price Collapse Leaves 19 Million in Absolute Poverty... Putin’s Approval Rating Shaken

Navalny established himself as a major anti-government figure in Russia after securing 27% of the vote and finishing second in the September 2013 Moscow mayoral election. At that time, Sergei Sobyanin, endorsed by President Putin, was expected to win with overwhelming support exceeding 70%, but due to Navalny’s strong campaign, Sobyanin received only 51%. This event drew the attention of Russian authorities to Navalny.

Navalny’s rise as Putin’s rival is closely linked to Russia’s economic difficulties. In September 2014, international oil prices, which had been around $100, plummeted to $50?60 within three months. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB), last year oil and gas accounted for 46% of Russia’s exports. It is estimated that 25% of the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and over 40% of the national budget revenue come from oil and natural gas exports. Due to this economic structure, a drop in international oil prices lowers Russia’s external creditworthiness, causes the ruble to depreciate, and triggers inflation. Despite reduced consumption due to the COVID-19 pandemic last year, consumer prices in Russia rose by 5.2%, exceeding the government’s target of 4%, which is attributed to the impact of falling oil prices. Since 2014, Russia’s poverty rate has remained around 13?14%, with approximately 19 million Russians living at the absolute poverty line.

◇ Navalny’s ‘Far-Right’ Tendencies Pose a Variable... "Foreign Workers Must Be Rooted Out"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

As Navalny’s recognition grows both inside and outside Russia, with the European Union (EU) and the U.S. government officially demanding his release, the prevailing analysis is that he will be a definite rival to Putin in the 2024 Russian presidential election. However, concerns have been raised that Navalny’s far-right tendencies, which openly express xenophobia, may limit his broader appeal.

According to the BBC, in 2007 Navalny caused controversy by criticizing people from the Caucasus region with different skin colors in Russia on an internet broadcast, saying, “Soldiers from the Caucasus region are cockroaches” and “Cockroaches must be crushed with slippers.” In 2011, disguised as a dentist on an internet broadcast, he compared foreign workers to tooth decay and said, “We must root them all out so that Russia’s roots do not rot,” which drew criticism. Due to this, socialist parties and communist opposition forces in Russia, who are trying to build an anti-Putin coalition ahead of the parliamentary elections in September, are reportedly hesitant to fully support an alliance with him.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.