Will Ahn Cheol-soo Succeed in Unification... How Much Has His Political Power Changed? [Seunggon Han's Political Notebook]

People Power Party Rejects Ahn Cheol-soo's Unification Proposal
Unification Negotiations to Be Re-discussed Outside the Party in March

Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party who declared his candidacy for the Seoul mayoral by-election, visited the Sajik 2 District redevelopment area in Jongno-gu, Seoul on the 17th, listening to the difficulties of the association officials.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Han Seung-gon] "Please open the People Power Party's primary platform to the entire opposition. If the main opposition party takes the lead and becomes the game maker for the opposition's victory, I will gladly participate." (During a National Assembly press conference on the 19th for unifying the Seoul mayoral candidate with Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party)

Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party (hereafter some honorifics omitted), proposed a method for unifying the Seoul mayoral candidate, but the People Power Party did not accept it, causing the so-called 'Ahn Cheol-soo-led unification' to be temporarily shelved.

The unification method proposed by Ahn consists of two main points. First, removing the People Power Party primary threshold so that all external figures can participate in the primary while maintaining their party membership.

Some interpret this as Ahn initially putting forward an unrealistic unification card. There is analysis suggesting it is a political calculation to build justification for his independent candidacy after failing to unify with the opposition and to increase his political value amid candidate division.

As a result, there are views that Ahn’s political sensibility may have changed as he has been active as a Seoul mayoral and presidential candidate as well as party leader.

Kim Jong-in, Emergency Response Committee Chairman of the People Power Party, is speaking at the People Power Party COVID-19 Countermeasures Special Committee meeting held at the National Assembly on the morning of the 20th.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆ People Power Party: "Unification outside the party in early March is not too late"

The People Power Party’s stance is to revisit Ahn’s proposal in March, the month before the election. Kim Jong-in, the emergency committee chairman, said in a phone interview with Yonhap News on the 21st, "It is not too late for our party’s candidate, Ahn, and former lawmaker Geum Tae-seop to unify outside the party in early March," emphasizing, "Unification is not something that happens through practical negotiations."

At the same time, they left the door open for Ahn to join the party. Jeong Jin-seok, the nomination committee chairman, said, "Ahn seems to value the number 4 party membership more than unifying opposition candidates," adding, "He said he could discuss a merger depending on supporters’ wishes, so there is no reason he cannot join the party."

While Ahn and the People Power Party are fiercely competing over unifying the Seoul mayoral candidate, some criticize Ahn’s approach as a strategy he already used in the 2018 Seoul mayoral election.

In that election, Ahn ran as the Bareunmirae Party candidate and finished third. This result raised questions about Ahn’s political potential and was analyzed as a political blow.

Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, is volunteering as medical staff at a temporary screening clinic set up at Seoul Plaza on the 15th, engaging in conversation with healthcare workers.
[Photo by Yonhap News]

◆ 2018 'Bareunmirae Party Ahn Cheol-soo' report card: Will he overcome it now?

If unification with the People Power Party fails, the same situation could repeat in this Seoul mayoral election. Unless he wins, narrowly losing in second place only results in an intangible political evaluation that "Ahn Cheol-soo’s potential is still alive," but he will not be the Seoul mayor Ahn Cheol-soo. It is also questionable whether the People Power Party will express a positive view of Ahn after his electoral defeat.

Moreover, the scenario of Ahn joining the People Power Party or the People’s Party merging with the People Power Party is not an attractive condition from Ahn’s perspective.

Ahn’s political career has seen party changes from the New Politics Alliance for Democracy to the People’s Party, Bareunmirae Party, and back to the People’s Party. In such a reality, any form of alliance with the People Power Party is unlikely to be welcomed by Ahn.

There is also the hurdle of a strained relationship with Kim Jong-in, who acted as Ahn’s political mentor in 2011. Kim openly said, "Ahn Cheol-soo is the most disliked."

In a New Year survey by Hankook Research, Ahn ranked first in political unpopularity. According to a Gallup Korea survey conducted from December 10 to 12 last year with 1,001 voters nationwide on politicians considered potential presidential candidates, Ahn had a 69% unpopularity rating, and Hwang Kyo-ahn, former leader of the United Future Party (now People Power Party), had 67%, ranking first and second respectively.

Experts analyze that Ahn must show a groundbreaking approach in his unification efforts to gain recognition for his political skills both in the political world and among the public.

Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon said, "Ultimately, isn’t he saying to unify under himself? Of course, I think he is approaching politics more realistically," but added, "However, that does not mean his political skills have qualitatively improved because he still seems trapped in past frames."

He continued, "He is in the third zone, holding the centrist voters, and without joining the People Power Party or making such a choice, he is pushing for unification from outside, aiming to become the '2011 Park Won-soon'?that’s how I interpret it."

He emphasized, "Simply put, that seems to be the strategy, but it is the same frame he has used repeatedly. If we conclude that such unification attempts have failed so far, shouldn’t he consider other options now? For example, boldly joining the party, negotiating directly with Kim Jong-in, or attempting party-to-party integration through various methods."

The commentator explained, "However, at this point, it does not seem like that situation, and he still appears somewhat bound by past methods, so it is hard to say his political skills have greatly improved."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.