The "Spring Day Three Years Ago" Mentioned by Buk... Joint Exercises as a Variable

▲ 'Key Resolve' US-ROK joint military exercise participating US soldiers

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un has warned that the situation could return to the "spring day three years ago" depending on the South's attitude, drawing attention to whether the planned South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises scheduled for March this year will be conducted.

The South Korea-U.S. alliance has set the joint exercise schedule for the first half of this year to 16 days in the second week of March and 18 days in mid-August, and is in final coordination. Since normal exercises could not be conducted last year due to the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), this year the joint exercises must complete the FOC (Full Operational Capability) verification evaluation for the transfer of wartime operational control and agree on the timing of the transfer.

Regarding this, Chairman Kim said in the report summarizing the 8th Party Congress business from the 5th to the 7th, "The South has continuously ignored our repeated warnings to stop the introduction of advanced military equipment and joint military exercises with the United States," adding, "It is no exaggeration to say that the current state of inter-Korean relations has reverted to the period before the Panmunjom Declaration was announced."

Not only Chairman Kim's warning but also the trend of COVID-19 spread acts as a variable. If COVID-19 does not subside, the schedule will inevitably become uncertain again. In this case, South Korea and the U.S. may reduce the scale of the joint exercises through consultation. However, the U.S. side may express reluctance to the transfer of wartime operational control, claiming that the exercise scale was too small to conduct the verification evaluation for the transfer, causing side effects.

The situation could also change due to North Korea's provocations. North Korea indirectly revealed its intention to develop long-range rockets in December last year. If North Korea conducts military demonstrations such as test launches of medium- and long-range ballistic missiles as pressure against the Biden administration of the United States, the Biden administration may push ahead with the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises and continue a hardline policy toward North Korea.

To respond to this, North Korea may play the tactical nuclear weapons card officially mentioned in the report of the 8th Party Congress. Tactical nuclear weapons can be mounted on new tactical missiles with a range of around 400 to 600 km and super-large multiple rocket launchers (diameter 600 mm), possessing a yield from several kilotons (kt; 1 kt equals the explosive power of 1,000 tons of TNT) to several tens of kilotons. If mounted on nuclear-powered submarines, they can also be used as a pressure card against the United States.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.