"Korea, Not a Sandwich in US-China Conflict but a Bridge... Leading Trilateral Dialogue Channel"

<New Year Interview> Professor Ziqing Guo of Beijing International Relations Academy, "Security with South Korea and the US, Economic Partner with China"
High-level North Korea-US talks difficult for now... Need for Six-Party Talks Acceptable to All Parties

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Cho Young-shin] Jia Qingguo (賈慶國, 65), a professor at Peking University’s School of International Studies and former Standing Committee member (vice-ministerial level) of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), is an authority on international relations and Korean Peninsula issues in China.

He is also a renowned Chinese scholar known for his candid remarks, such as in March 2017 at the CPPCC when he stated regarding the deployment of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense), “China’s economic retaliation against South Korea harms China itself and will instead allow other countries to benefit.”

Moreover, he is highly regarded for his expertise, having met privately with then-Vice President Joe Biden during Biden’s 2011 visit to China to discuss bilateral relations.

Jaching Guo (賈慶國, 65), a professor at the School of International Relations at Peking University, recently stated in a New Year interview with Asia Economy that South Korea, which has a high level of understanding between China and the U.S., should act as a bridge to resolve Sino-American conflicts. He believes that South Korea can take the lead in establishing dialogue channels among the three countries: South Korea, China, and the U.S. Regarding North Korea's nuclear issue and North Korea-U.S. relations, he predicted that high-level talks between the two countries would be difficult to realize in the short term. Photo by Jo Youngshin, Beijing correspondent

In an interview with a reporter at Peking University, he spoke about US-China relations and the Korean Peninsula, saying, “From South Korea’s perspective, the US-China conflict is very awkward, and South Korea may be forced to choose between the US and China.” This could be interpreted as a warning that choosing the US might come with corresponding costs for South Korea.

However, the essence of Professor Jia’s remarks is about South Korea’s role. He believes that South Korea, with its deep understanding of both China and the US, should act as a bridge to ease US-China tensions. We asked Professor Jia about US-China relations and the Korean Peninsula issues.

- How are US-China relations expected to change after the Biden administration took office?

▲There will definitely be changes. President-elect Joe Biden is a principled person.

First, the uncertainty of the Trump era will be removed. Biden is not expected to deliberately create uncertainty.

Also, Biden will want to resume dialogue between China and the US. To do so, he must not restart the trade war. Of course, Biden will not immediately withdraw the tariffs imposed by Trump. He is likely to use them as leverage to bring China to a new negotiation table.

- What impact does the US-China conflict have on the Korean Peninsula?

▲South Korea must do two things. First, it should not take a selective or partial stance between China and the US. It must not lean toward either side. If it does, the risks are too great. From South Korea’s perspective, the US is a security partner, and China is an economic partner. In other words, South Korea must not become disliked by either side.

Also, South Korea has a high level of understanding of both China and the US. Therefore, South Korea can serve as a bridge between the two and should do so. In some cases, South Korea may need to lead the establishment of trilateral dialogue channels among South Korea, China, and the US.

- South Korea’s greatest concern remains North Korea-US relations and the North Korean nuclear issue.

▲Both North Korea and the US want to resolve the issue. Therefore, working-level talks are inevitable. However, high-level talks like those with President Trump are unlikely to happen in the short term. It is difficult for North Korea and the US to narrow their differences on how to denuclearize. North Korea has not clearly stated its position on denuclearization. Therefore, US pressure on North Korea may intensify. Once the pandemic stabilizes, South Korea-US military exercises may resume.

- There is also talk about the need to resume the Six-Party Talks to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue.

▲If the Six-Party Talks resume in a way acceptable to all parties, they could play a significant role. Previously, they were ineffective because neither North Korea nor the US was willing to accept them. Personally, I believe resuming the Six-Party Talks could help manage and resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. China can actively coordinate the interests and differences of the parties involved. If the talks resume, the Chinese government will actively participate and contribute to resolving the Korean Peninsula issue.

- You mentioned the US-China trade war earlier. What is your view on the Phase One US-China trade agreement?

▲The Phase One US-China trade agreement signed early last year has both positive and negative aspects from China’s perspective. The negative is that China was forced to purchase US products, which is unreasonable.

The positive is that, willingly or unwillingly, reforms necessary for the Chinese economy, such as intellectual property protection and market opening, have been implemented. This will certainly help China’s economic development. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement is in the same context. More markets will open to member countries, and economic exchanges will expand. It will also positively affect the China-South Korea-Japan Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations.

- What about the global power dynamics in the post-COVID-19 era?

▲It is premature to talk about the post-COVID-19 era. We thought it would end by summer, but winter came, and even the year changed, yet it continues.

However, at this point, if we assess the impact of COVID-19, there is a shift in the balance of power. China responded well and will achieve 1-2% economic growth in 2020. There are forecasts that China’s economy will surpass the US by 2028.

If China’s economy surpasses the US, its political and military influence will inevitably grow. The key is interaction between countries. If interaction goes well, a cooperative agenda will emerge; if not, the national power of China and the US will be used in various ways.

- What is your view on the democracy system issues raised during the US presidential election?

▲The Western bloc calls China a “one-party system.” However, China has eight factions. Systems differ depending on each country’s situation. In Western developed countries, wealth and resource distribution are the most important issues. Countries like the US have conflicts because their interests differ.

On the other hand, China is a developing country. To lead social change, it must suppress many interests. The advantage of the Chinese system is that it can achieve success and results in a short period.

Of course, this is also a disadvantage. Wrong decisions by leaders cannot be reversed. A representative example is the Cultural Revolution. It lasted ten years because the leadership did not change. This does not mean the Chinese system is entirely correct. No system in the world is perfect. Each system develops by complementing its weaknesses according to the times.

▲Biography of Jia Qingguo (賈慶國), Professor at Peking University’s School of International Studies

Born in Henan Province, China; majored in English at Beijing Foreign Studies University; earned master’s and doctoral degrees in Government from Cornell University, USA; professor at the University of Sydney, Australia; researcher at the Brookings Institution; Standing Committee member (vice-ministerial level) of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference; former vice dean and dean of Peking University’s School of International Studies; currently professor at Peking University’s School of International Studies.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.