COVID-19 Delayed Marriage and Childbirth... BOK Warns Fertility Rate May Drop to 0.7 Level (Comprehensive)

Bank of Korea 'Reviewing Conditions of Demographic Changes in the Post-COVID-19 Era'

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Eun-byeol] An analysis has emerged that the birth rate will drop to the 0.7 range as the COVID-19 pandemic negatively affects marriage and childbirth.

According to the "Review of Population Structure Changes in the Post-COVID-19 Era" report released by the Bank of Korea on the 30th, South Korea's total fertility rate is expected to fall to 0.72 in 2022 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The total fertility rate is a composite measure analyzing the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime by age group. Kim Min-sik, deputy director of the Bank of Korea's Research Department, stated, "The total fertility rate may fall more than initially expected due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic."

The Bank of Korea's forecast for the total fertility rate is more pessimistic compared to the future population projections announced by Statistics Korea last year. At that time, Statistics Korea predicted that under the median scenario, the birth rate would drop to 0.90 this year and 0.86 next year before rebounding. However, the average birth rate from the first to third quarters of this year is 0.86, below expectations. Deputy Director Kim said, "Considering that the birth rate is usually lower in the fourth quarter, the birth rate for this year is expected to be around 0.83 to 0.84." The Bank of Korea's analysis suggests that the COVID-19 impact was not reflected in this year's birth rate, and the total fertility rate will further decline once the shock is factored in from next year.

The Bank of Korea analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on the population structure by dividing it into economic and socio-cultural aspects, emphasizing that the structure is gradually changing to make marriage more difficult. Economically, employment and income shocks occurred mainly among people in their 20s and 30s, and with the spread of non-face-to-face lifestyles, it has become difficult for people in their 20s and 30s to meet each other. In fact, the number of marriages from March to September this year decreased by 16,000 (12.0%) compared to the same period last year. He said, "If companies adopt conservative hiring and expand automation investments, changing the labor structure, young people may face difficulties securing stable income in the future."

This phenomenon is expected to further accelerate the low birthrate and aging trend that had been ongoing even before the COVID-19 pandemic. Currently, South Korea's elderly population ratio is 15.7%, which is lower than the OECD average (17.9%), but the speed of aging is the fastest. The decline in marriage rates is also the highest among OECD member countries. Because fewer people marry, the birth rate decreases, resulting in a higher proportion of elderly people.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.