The 9th Power Plan Confirmed for Coal and Nuclear Phase-Out... Renewable Energy to Quadruple by 2034

Ministry of Industry Confirms and Announces the 9th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand (2020-2034) on the 28th
Coal Power Plants Reduced by Half, Lifespan Extension of 11 Nuclear Reactors Prohibited, etc.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Moon Chaeseok] The government finalized and announced the final draft of the '9th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand' (9th Electricity Basic Plan) on the 28th, which includes power generation facility plans from this year through 2034.

The capacity of new and renewable energy facilities will increase fourfold by 2034, and their share of total energy capacity will expand by 2.6 times. The share of coal and nuclear power facilities will be reduced to about half.

New and renewable energy facilities to increase 4 times by 2034... Share reaches 40.3%

Source: Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy

The core of the 9th Electricity Basic Plan announced by the government on this day is to reduce coal-fired power plants and nuclear power plants while significantly increasing new and renewable energy facilities. It is characterized by concretizing the plan to achieve the greenhouse gas emission reduction target in the transition sector by 2030.

Based on economic growth rate forecasts, industrial structure changes, population projections, and temperature data, the government projected the maximum electricity demand in 2034 to be 102.5GW. This is a 12.6% reduction compared to the maximum electricity demand of 117.5GW in 2034.

The standard reserve margin is set at 22%, the same as the 8th Electricity Basic Plan announced in 2017. Accordingly, the target facility capacity was set at 125.1GW, which is 22% more than the target demand of 102.5GW.

This is about 2.8GW less than the existing facility plan of 122.2GW, but the shortfall will be compensated by securing 1GW of liquefied natural gas (LNG) power generation and 1.8GW of pumped storage power.

First, 30 coal-fired power plants (capacity 15.3GW) reaching their 30-year operational lifespan by 2034 will be decommissioned. To ensure supply stability, 24 of these plants (12.7GW) will be converted to LNG power generation.

Nuclear power will peak at 26 plants (26.1GW) in 2022 with the completion of Shin Hanul Units 1 and 2, then decrease to 17 plants (19.4GW) by 2034. This follows the principle of prohibiting new construction and life extension.

The capacity of new and renewable energy facilities will increase about fourfold from 20.1GW this year to 77.8GW in 2034. This reflects the Renewable Energy 3020 plan, the Hydrogen Economy Activation Roadmap, and the Green New Deal plan.

Accordingly, the share of new and renewable energy facilities in Korea's total energy capacity will expand from 15.8% this year to 40.3% in 2034, about 2.6 times. During the same period, coal will decrease from 28.1% to 15%, and nuclear power from 18.2% to 10.1%.

The policy stance, which has been controversial due to concerns about supply instability caused by the high intermittency (fluctuations in power generation due to weather conditions) unique to new and renewable energy, and the energy transition mainly to LNG which emits more greenhouse gases than nuclear power, has been maintained.

Maximum electricity demand 102.5GW... Some 4th Industrial Revolution predictions not reflected

Source: Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy

The lowering of the maximum electricity demand forecast due to the decline in the average annual economic growth rate forecast caused by COVID-19 and other factors is expected to become a point of controversy.

The government explained that the electricity demand forecast was reduced because the economic growth rate forecast for the next 15 years at the time of the 8th plan announcement (2.43%) was higher than the forecast from now until 2034 (2.06%).

However, the failure to fully reflect the potential increase in electricity consumption due to the 4th Industrial Revolution in the supply and demand forecast is expected to be pointed out as a limitation.

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy explained, "During the establishment of the 9th Electricity Basic Plan, we analyzed and reviewed the impact of the 4th Industrial Revolution on electricity consumption, but concluded that it was difficult to quantitatively reflect electricity consumption as maximum electricity due to uncertainties in predicting electricity usage patterns."

They added, "We will comprehensively review ways to improve the methodology for analyzing increases and decreases in electricity demand due to the 4th Industrial Revolution and incorporate expert opinions, then reflect this in the 10th Electricity Basic Plan."

2030 NDC target reflected but no mention of upward revision

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy reflected the 2030 national greenhouse gas reduction target (NDC) by including the 2030 greenhouse gas emission target of 193 million tons in this 9th Electricity Basic Plan.

Accordingly, the share of power generation by energy source in 2030 will be 20.8% new and renewable, 29.9% coal, and 25% nuclear power. Compared to 2019, new and renewable energy will increase by 14.3%, coal will decrease by 10.5%, and nuclear power will decrease by 0.9%.

Additionally, the Ministry projects that particulate matter emissions from the power generation sector will decrease by about 57%, from 21,000 tons last year to 9,000 tons in 2030.

However, the Ministry of Environment has decided to revise the NDC upward by 2025, but this has not yet been reflected.

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy only explained, "The greenhouse gas reduction plan was concretized in connection with the 2030 NDC to be submitted to the UN at the end of this year."

It is uncertain whether this will be reflected in the 10th Electricity Basic Plan in 2021 or the 11th Electricity Basic Plan in 2023. The key will be whether adjustments to power generation volumes will be presented in future plans such as the Basic Plan for New and Renewable Energy.

'Rush public hearing' criticism met with "Gathering opinions from all sectors"

On May 8th, at COEX in Gangnam-gu, Seoul, Professor Yoo Seung-hoon from the Department of Energy Policy at Seoul National University of Science and Technology, who serves as the chair of the General Subcommittee, is speaking at the briefing on the main discussion results of the 9th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand Working Group. / Photo by Moon Ho-nam munonam@

Criticism arose that the opinion-gathering process for the 9th Electricity Basic Plan until its finalization and announcement was not smooth. Some called it a 'rush public hearing.'

The public hearing just before the final stage, the Electricity Policy Deliberation Committee, was criticized for being conducted by collecting written questions and responses rather than through a debate between pros and cons. Holding the public hearing on Christmas Eve was also problematic.

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy stated, "We gathered diverse opinions from all sectors through the report to the National Assembly's Industry, Trade, Energy, Small and Medium Enterprises Committee on the 23rd and the public hearing on the 24th. The hearing was broadcast live on YouTube and was open to both pre-registered participants and the general public, with 558 online attendees, more than those at the 8th plan's on-site public hearing."

The Ministry also announced that after finalizing the 9th Electricity Basic Plan, related energy plans and policies such as the '5th Basic Plan for New and Renewable Energy,' '14th Long-term Natural Gas Supply and Demand Plan,' 'Distributed Energy Activation Roadmap,' and 'Long-term Transmission and Transformation Facility Plan' will be established and finalized.

Furthermore, to achieve the 2050 carbon neutrality goal, the next Electricity Basic Plan will review and present electricity demand forecasts and mid- to long-term power mix based on legislation and ensuring consistency with higher-level plans.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.