Yoon Seok-yeol Freed from Disciplinary Shackles, Where Will His High Approval Ratings Head? [Han Seung-gon's Political Notebook]

Yoon Seok-yeol's Next Presidential Preference Support Remains High
What Role Will Yoon's Approval Play Ahead of Seoul and Busan Mayoral By-elections and the Presidential Election?

Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol, who returned to work following the Administrative Court's approval of the suspension of the disciplinary action against him, is arriving at the Supreme Prosecutors' Office in Seocho-gu, Seoul, on the afternoon of the 25th. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Han Seung-gon] As Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol's preference rating for the next presidential election continues to soar, political circles are focusing on how Yoon's approval rating might influence not only the Seoul and Busan mayoral by-elections but also the upcoming presidential election. In particular, with the court recently putting a brake on the two-month suspension disciplinary action, there is a view that Yoon's activities will continue without pause for the time being.

Political commentators say that while poll results are something voters can deliberate on, they have yet to determine what role Yoon's approval rating might play. This is interpreted as being because Yoon has not made any political statements or taken related actions so far.

◆ Who is the next political leader? Yoon Seok-yeol... Most preferred among People Power Party supporters

Yoon recently ranked high in preference polls for presidential candidates. According to a survey conducted by R&Search on behalf of Dailyan from October 30 to 31, targeting 1,011 people nationwide aged 18 and older, 24.5% responded that Yoon was the most suitable next political leader. This is an increase of 9.1 percentage points from the previous survey conducted in the fourth week of October (15.1%).

Lee Nak-yeon, leader of the Democratic Party, recorded 22.5%, up 0.9 percentage points from October, and Lee Jae-myung, Governor of Gyeonggi Province, dropped 3.7 percentage points to 19.1%. Following them were independent lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo at 5.6%, former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon at 4.5%, Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party at 2.7%, former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min at 2.4%, Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun at 2.0%, Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong at 1.6%, Gyeongnam Governor Kim Kyung-soo at 1.3%, and former Liberty Korea Party leader Hwang Kyo-ahn at 1.3%.

By party support, Yoon recorded a high approval rating of 52.6% among People Power Party supporters. Lee recorded 50.4% among Democratic Party supporters, and Lee Jae-myung recorded 34.1%.

On the evening of the 24th, when the second hearing date for the injunction application against the disciplinary action filed by Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol against Minister of Justice Chu Mi-ae was held, the Supreme Prosecutors' Office building in Seocho-dong, Seoul, was illuminated.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆ Yoon strong in Seoul, Busan, Ulsan, Gyeongnam... Lee Nak-yeon high in Gwangju and Jeolla

Regionally, Yoon showed strength in Seoul (27.5%), Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (26.8%), Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong (26.8%), and Daegu and Gyeongbuk (27.3%).

Lee recorded the highest approval ratings in Gwangju and Jeolla (37.8%) and Gangwon and Jeju (29.5%). Lee Jae-myung showed the highest approval rating in Gyeonggi and Incheon (25.7%).

By age group, Yoon scored high among those in their 50s (29.6%) and 60s and older (33.1%). Lee recorded the highest approval rating among 18-29-year-olds (29.0%). Lee Jae-myung showed high ratings among those in their 30s (24.1%) and 40s (29.3%).

This survey was conducted using a structured questionnaire via 100% wireless RDD (Random Digit Dialing - a method where surveyors call randomly generated numbers) automated response. The response rate was 5.5%, and the sampling error was ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Statistical adjustments were made by applying weights based on gender, age, and region according to the resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of the end of February 2020. For detailed survey outlines and results, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

On the afternoon of October 23, wreaths supporting Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol were placed in front of the Supreme Prosecutors' Office in Seocho-gu, Seoul. [Image source=Yonhap News]

◆ Yoon Seok-yeol shows high approval ratings in polls released on the 9th

Earlier, Yoon also showed high approval ratings in presidential candidate preference polls released on the 9th. The polling agencies were Hangil Research and Realmeter.

According to a survey commissioned by Cookie News and conducted by Hangil Research from November 5 to 7 targeting 1,002 men and women aged 18 and older nationwide, Yoon's approval rating was 28.2%. He was followed by Lee Jae-myung at 21.3% and Lee Nak-yeon at 18.0%. This survey was conducted using a structured questionnaire method (20.4% landline telephone interviews, 79.6% wireless ARS, random RDD sampling). The response rate was 6.3%, and the sampling error was ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Also, according to a survey commissioned by Kukmin Ilbo and conducted by Realmeter from November 7 to 8 targeting 1,000 people aged 18 and older nationwide (sampling error ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), Yoon's approval rating was 25.8%. Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yeon both recorded 20.2%.

Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol is attending an event held on the afternoon of September 18 last year at the annex of the Supreme Prosecutors' Office in Seocho-gu, Seoul.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆ Where will the high approval rating of the incumbent Prosecutor General head?

As Yoon shows approval ratings similar to or higher than prominent politicians in the next presidential candidate preference polls, there is growing interest in how this situation might affect the opposition camp.

Although he is a public official who must maintain political neutrality, there is speculation that under certain circumstances or conditions, Yoon's approval rating could positively influence opposition candidates.

Such views are also expressed among conservative supporters. A 40-year-old People Power Party supporter said, "Although the possibility is low, if Yoon resigns from his position as Prosecutor General and truly enters the political frontline, the impact could be significant," adding, "He is currently cautious about politics and has no choice but to be, but politics is a living thing, so any prediction can change."

Another opposition supporter in their 30s said, "Yoon himself says he will not engage in politics, but his approval rating says otherwise," emphasizing, "It is certainly a positive sign that such high approval ratings are coming from the opposition. How the People Power Party, the main opposition party, politically manages this will be crucial." They added, "The court also said there was a problem with Yoon's disciplinary action, so legally there is nothing to worry about."

Regarding this, an expert predicted that from the voters' perspective, Yoon's approval rating is still outside the calculation. Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon explained, "Voters naturally consider poll results when voting. They think about 'how is this person's approval rating?' but the poll results do not necessarily have an absolute influence on the voting process."

On whether Yoon's approval rating could affect the opposition, he said, "Voters are likely not to perceive Yoon as a candidate," emphasizing, "Yoon can be perceived separately from by-elections and other verdicts."

Meanwhile, Yoon, who has returned to duty, is reported to have been briefed on the progress of the prosecution's investigations targeting the current government, including the Wolseong nuclear power plant case.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.