[In-Depth Review] Trump's Legacy and the Biden Administration's Trade Policy

Je Hyeonjeong, Director of Trade Support Center, Korea International Trade Association

Jae Hyun Jung, Director of the Trade Support Center, Korea International Trade Association

Je Hyeon-jeong, Director of the Trade Support Center, Korea International Trade Association

In the history of U.S. presidential elections, trade policy has always been a secondary agenda. Donald Trump broke this convention by making trade policy the main focus to realize America First in the 2016 election, successfully entering the White House. Over the past four years, he has implemented 100% of his trade-related campaign promises. On the other hand, looking at Joe Biden’s campaign promises in the 2020 election, trade policy seems to have been relegated to a secondary role again. However, just because President-elect Biden criticized various trade measures taken by the Trump administration without presenting concrete alternatives or new policies, it is difficult to expect that the importance of trade policy will diminish or that existing measures will be eased going forward.

The Biden administration’s top priority in its early days will undoubtedly be responding to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and economic recovery. Given Biden’s experience as a foreign affairs expert in Congress, there is no doubt that he will focus on restoring U.S. global leadership. For these reasons, one might think that trade policy will be deprioritized for a while, but I rather expect that the new Biden administration’s economic and foreign policies will be closely linked to trade policy in many respects.

President-elect Biden emphasizes the 'Buy American' policy, which prioritizes purchasing American-made products in public procurement to revive the domestic economy. To enhance its effectiveness, revising trade agreements the U.S. has entered into is inevitable. The U.S. is a party not only to the World Trade Organization (WTO) plurilateral Government Procurement Agreement but also has committed to non-discrimination obligations toward foreign companies in government procurement under various bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs). Policies aimed at revitalizing the U.S. economy are thus likely to trigger trade issues with partner countries. The foreign policy aimed at restoring U.S. leadership will also be difficult to separate from trade. This is because the Trump administration’s trade policies, which involved threatening allies and weakening the WTO multilateral trade system, were among the main causes of the decline in U.S. leadership.

Since Biden, who emphasizes cooperation with allies, was elected, voices calling for the restoration of the traditional alliance between the U.S. and Europe in political, diplomatic, and security aspects have grown louder. However, given ongoing conflicts such as the U.S. Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, disputes over European countries’ digital services taxes, and the long-standing aircraft subsidy disputes, strengthening cooperation apart from trade issues does not seem easy. Moreover, with the Trump administration having deliberately paralyzed the WTO Appellate Body’s function in the dispute settlement process and weakened the global multilateral trade order, it would be nonsensical for the Biden administration to restore U.S. global leadership while postponing WTO reform and recovery.

The Biden administration will not be free from the legacy of the Trump administration’s trade policies when formulating future economic and foreign policies. Ultimately, to revive the domestic economy and regain trust from allies, decisions must be made on which existing trade measures to maintain and which to ease or withdraw.

One of the key positions to make these critical decisions is the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR). Recently, Katherine Tai, senior trade counsel for the House Ways and Means Committee Democrats, was nominated. Tai has USTR experience and has been active in Congress, so she is expected to facilitate communication between the administration and Congress. Above all, the world is watching how she will differentiate herself from Robert Lighthizer, the seasoned veteran who dominated U.S. trade policy over the past four years. The stage for the Trump administration’s trade policy, which was the lead actor, is almost over. The next stage’s highlight will be how wisely the new figures overcome the legacy of Trump’s trade policies.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.