North Korea Denuclearization 'China's Role Theory'... "Don't Have High Expectations vs Cooperation Needed"

Former Unification Minister Kim Yeon-cheol "Proposes South-North-US-China Four-Party Talks"
Joel Witt "China Should Be Considered Best Not to Interfere"

In June 2019, Xi Jinping, President of China, who visited Pyongyang, shakes hands with Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, ahead of the North Korea-China summit.

With the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea scheduled for early next year and the inauguration of the Joe Biden administration in the United States, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is expected to reach a turning point, sparking a debate among experts about China's role in North Korea's denuclearization.

At the 'Remote Discussion on North Korea Policy by South Korea-US North Korea Experts' hosted by the Ministry of Unification on the morning of the 18th, former Minister of Unification Kim Yeon-chul stated, "The North Korea-China relationship has become much closer not only economically but also politically and militarily compared to the past," adding, "If the Biden administration cannot prioritize the North Korean nuclear issue, cooperation from other parties will be necessary."

He proposed a four-party meeting involving South Korea, North Korea, the US, and China, saying, "A four-party format is initially necessary for detailed negotiations on denuclearization and a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, and once established, it could expand to a six-party meeting including Japan and Russia."

On the other hand, Joel Wit, Senior Researcher at the Stimson Center, said, "We should not expect China to actively help," adding, "The best we can expect from China is not to interfere."

Frank Jannuzi, Chairman of the Mansfield Foundation, acknowledged that "China's role has not always been constructive," but emphasized, "Since China is a country that plays a role in North Korea's security guarantees, it cannot be completely excluded from peace and denuclearization talks."

The discussion also included forecasts and advice regarding the future US policy toward North Korea.

Former Minister Kim suggested that the next Biden administration apply sanctions on North Korea flexibly. He pointed out, "(The Trump administration) used sanctions too rigidly," and said, "Sanctions are a means, not an end, so using them flexibly is a task for the Biden administration." He added, "If more preparation is made on how to build trust with North Korea, it will become a decisive driving force to accelerate denuclearization."

Kim also said, "It is expected that North Korea will make many concessions in diplomatic negotiations because of its difficult situation, but looking at past cases, it might rather pursue the path of self-reliance," emphasizing, "It is important to think about how to persuade North Korea."

Considering North Korea's recent national efforts to combat the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), cautious opinions were expressed regarding the strategy of initiating dialogue with North Korea through this issue.

Jenny Town, editor of the North Korea-focused media 38 North, pointed out, "Starting dialogue through COVID-19 touches on North Korea's vulnerabilities," and said, "It gives the impression that North Korea needs help."

She added, "Especially if this issue is focused only on the US-North Korea bilateral relationship, it could appear as a hierarchical power relationship, which might not be favorable from North Korea's perspective."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.