Less Movement Than During Shincheonji Outbreak... Difficult to Expect a Decrease in Confirmed Cases

Jungsubon, Analysis of Mobility Before and After Social Distancing
Last Weekend Mobility Down 30% Compared to Before Upgrade
Weakened Correlation Between Social Distancing Upgrade, Mobility, and Infection Spread

On the 17th, citizens are getting tested at the Jung-gu temporary screening clinic set up at Seoul Station Plaza. The Central Disease Control Headquarters announced that as of midnight on the same day, there were 1,014 new confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), bringing the total to 46,453. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Choi Dae-yeol] The amount of movement during the first weekend after raising social distancing to level 2.5 in the Seoul metropolitan area on the 12th and 13th decreased by nearly 30% compared to a month earlier. The quarantine authorities emphasized that the movement last weekend was even lower than during the first wave of the domestic outbreak in February and March.

According to the movement analysis results released by the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters on the 17th, the amount of movement in the metropolitan area on the 12th and 13th was 24,488,000 cases, down 12% from the previous weekend. Compared to the second weekend of November before the increase in distancing levels (November 14-15), it decreased by about 32%. In non-metropolitan areas, where distancing was raised to level 2, the movement last weekend was 26,737,000 cases, decreasing by approximately 7% and 30% respectively during the same period.

Son Young-rae, head of the Strategic Planning Division at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, explained at a back briefing that "the movement in the metropolitan area last weekend was even lower compared to the time when movement was at its lowest during the outbreak in Daegu and Gyeongbuk in February."

Trend analysis of weekend mobility after social distancing adjustments. Statistics Korea counted the number of movements when users of S Telecom visited administrative neighborhoods in different cities, counties, or districts from their actual residence and stayed for more than 30 minutes.

There were many evaluations that the effect of reducing movement due to the increase in distancing levels was less than before. Movement decreased by about the low teens percentage during the first weekend after the upgrade and the following week, but in the third week on the 5th and 6th of this month, movement slightly increased in the metropolitan area and only decreased by 5% in non-metropolitan areas.

Even though additional quarantine rules were added to level 2 in the metropolitan area and the nationwide level was raised to 1.5, movement did not decrease or showed almost no change. Rather, the number of new confirmed cases has steadily increased since mid-last month. The effect of reducing movement due to distancing is unclear, and even when movement decreases, new cases have sharply increased.

Yoon Tae-ho, head of the Quarantine General Division at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, said, "Although movement has decreased, the increase in testing volume is affecting the number of cases by discovering hidden confirmed cases," adding, "Since we are expanding proactive testing to find hidden patients early, it is expected that there will be a temporary increase in new cases." Son added, "As movement decreases and contacts are reduced, we hope that early detection of patients will work well together to turn the trend into a decline," but also said, "It is difficult to specify a concrete time point."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.