"Inter-Korean Union Must Create a Shared Vision and Move Toward Economic Integration"

National Security Strategy Institute Report
North Korea Expected to Maintain Conciliatory Stance Toward South Korea Next Year

President Moon Jae-in and Chairman Kim Jong-un met at Okryugwan in Pyongyang on September 19, 2018

As the 8th Party Congress scheduled for January next year raises the possibility of North Korea shifting its strategy toward South Korea to a conciliatory stance, an analysis has emerged suggesting that a South-North confederation should be pursued by concurrently advancing economic integration, social and cultural integration, and political integration.

Kim Il-gi and Chae Jae-byeong, senior research fellows at the Institute for National Security Strategy, stated this in their report titled "Implications of Overseas Confederation Cases for the Korean Peninsula," released on the 16th, where they analyzed cases of the United States, the European Union (EU), and the Sweden-Norway union.

The report first emphasized the need to create common goals and shared interests to promote a South-North confederation. The 13 states of the United States formed a confederation through the War of Independence by pursuing the common goal of independence from Britain and sharing benefits, and the EU was able to form a confederation by pursuing the common goal of community formation and sharing interests. In contrast, the Sweden-Norway union failed to create common goals and shared interests due to differing perceptions of the confederation, ultimately leading to its dissolution.

Furthermore, the report pointed out that "the establishment of supranational institutions and the granting of substantial authority must be realized." The U.S. confederation faced financial pressures and restrictions on decision-making over major issues due to its failure to establish supranational institutions, which increased difficulties in the stable operation of the confederation system. On the other hand, the EU was able to advance integration through the active activities of supranational institutions such as the European Commission and the European Parliament, the report explained.

The report also stated that various dialogue and consultation bodies must be established to move toward a South-North confederation. It analyzed, "The U.S. confederation was formed through a consultation process for joint cooperation after the 13 states gathered to form the Continental Congress during the War of Independence," and "The EU also launched the confederation and deepened integration through treaty signings via various consultative bodies such as the EU Summit."

Finally, the report emphasized that economic integration should be the focus, with social and cultural integration and political integration pursued concurrently. European integration began with economic integration and gradually moved toward social and cultural integration and political integration, and subsequently deepened the confederation system by advancing integration in each field simultaneously. The report advised, "When integration in the economic and political fields is combined, it is easier to secure the stability of integration," and "Integration in the diplomatic and security fields of the South-North confederation requires a calm approach with a mid- to long-term perspective rather than a hasty one."

Meanwhile, there is also an analysis suggesting a high possibility that North Korea will shift its strategy toward South Korea to a conciliatory stance at the 8th Party Congress scheduled for January next year. Kim Il-gi and Lee Soo-seok, senior research fellows, stated in their report titled "Strategic Line and Prospects for Changes in North Korea’s Policy Toward South Korea at the 8th Party Congress," released earlier on the 15th, that "North Korea’s need for our support has increased as the inflow of external aid was blocked due to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation."

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