Government Pushes Ahead with Nuclear and Coal Phase-Out... New and Renewable Energy Quadruples Increase

Ministry of Industry 9th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand
Renewable Energy in 2034 to Quadruple Current Capacity
Coal Plants Reduced from 60 to 30, Nuclear Plants from 24 to 17

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Moon Chaeseok] By 2034, half of the current 60 coal-fired power plants, totaling 30 units, will cease operation. The number of nuclear power plants will decrease from 24 to 17. Instead, the capacity of renewable energy power generation facilities will increase nearly fourfold.

According to the government on the 15th, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy has established the 9th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand (the 9th Electricity Plan) with these details. The ministry will hold a public hearing on the 24th to disclose the detailed contents of the plan, and then hold the Electricity Policy Deliberation Committee at the end of this month to finalize the plan.

The broad framework of 'phasing out nuclear and coal power,' maintained since the announcement of the 8th Electricity Plan in December 2017?the first long-term supply plan after the inauguration of the Moon Jae-in administration?is expected to be upheld.

Earlier, on the 7th, the government announced through the '2050 Carbon Neutrality Promotion Strategy' its plan to establish a job compensation system for workers in the coal-fired power sector, which is likely to be heavily impacted by the energy transition. This is expected to have a positive influence on the final decision of the 9th Electricity Plan.

The government believes that accelerating the spread of renewable energy, a policy consistently upheld since the 8th Electricity Plan, will help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

To achieve the greenhouse gas emission target of 193 million tons in the transition sector by 2030, the power generation mix has been adjusted to 29.9% coal, 25% nuclear, 23.3% liquefied natural gas (LNG), and 20.8% renewable energy.

Coal (from 40.4% last year to 29.9%) and nuclear (from 25.9% to 25%) will be reduced, while new and renewable energy (from 5.2% to 20.2%) will increase about fourfold. Some critics question why the share of nuclear power is reduced despite its relatively low greenhouse gas emissions.

According to the draft announced by the working group, an advisory body for the 9th Electricity Plan, on May 8, half of the 60 coal power plants, i.e., 30 units (with a capacity of 15.3GW), will be decommissioned by 2034, and 24 units (12.7GW) will be converted to LNG power plants.

The seven coal power plants currently under construction?Gangneung Anin Thermal Power Units 1 and 2, Samcheok Thermal Power Units 1 and 2, Seocheon Shinseocheon Thermal Power Unit 1, and Goseong High Thermal Power Units 1 and 2?will be completed as scheduled.

The number of nuclear power plants will peak at 26 units (27.3GW) in 2024 and then decrease to 17 units (19.4GW) by 2034. In accordance with the principle of prohibiting new installations and life extensions, the resumption of construction for Shin Hanul Units 3 and 4 is not expected.

With a downward revision of the electricity demand forecast compared to the working group’s draft, the projected capacities for LNG and new and renewable energy facilities have been slightly reduced. The government forecasts the maximum electricity demand in 2034 to be 102.5GW.

This is 1.7GW less than the working group’s 104.2GW, reflecting the reality of reduced electricity demand due to factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The average annual growth rate of maximum electricity demand remains at 1%, as per the working group’s plan.

Accordingly, the projected capacity for LNG power generation in 2034 has been adjusted to 59.1GW (1.5GW less than the working group’s draft), and for new and renewable energy to 77.8GW (0.3GW less).

Although slightly reduced compared to the working group’s plan, these targets require increasing LNG capacity by 43.1% and new and renewable energy capacity by 34.4% compared to this year to be achievable.

Additionally, following the Green New Deal policy announced in July, the target for renewable energy facility capacity by 2025 has been raised from 29.9GW to 42.7GW.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.