"Daily Confirmed Cases Predicted at 950~1200... Highest Crisis Since COVID-19 Outbreak" (Update)

Jung Eun-kyung, head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters (Director of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency), is holding a regular briefing on the afternoon of the 14th regarding the domestic COVID-19 outbreak status and interim investigation results of confirmed patients.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Heung-soon] The quarantine authorities have predicted that the daily number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in South Korea could reach up to 1,200 due to the impact of the third wave of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) domestically.

Jung Eun-kyung, head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters (CDCH), stated at a regular briefing on the afternoon of the 14th, "We calculate the real-time effective reproduction number daily, and as of yesterday, the reproduction number is about 1.28," adding, "Based on this, we estimate that the number of patients will range between 950 and 1,200."

The effective reproduction number indicates how many people one confirmed case infects additionally; a value of 1.28 means one confirmed case infects 1.28 others. If this number is above 1, the spread continues and the number of cases increases.

Jung explained, "Many experts are analyzing with various models," and "Therefore, the predicted numbers vary greatly among experts." She added, "If 'n-th transmission' is blocked through adherence to social distancing, epidemiological investigations, and contact management, there is room to reduce the number of confirmed cases significantly below the predicted figures." She emphasized, "The number of patients will be determined by whether preemptive testing, contact tracing and blocking, and strict compliance with social distancing levels 2.5 and 2 are observed."

Referring to the previous day's domestic new confirmed cases exceeding 1,000 for the first time at 1,030, she said, "With the onset of winter, the third wave of COVID-19 is intensifying," and stressed, "This is a different pattern from the first and second waves, and we consider this the most critical situation since the COVID-19 outbreak began." She further explained, "Unlike previous waves, this is not a cluster outbreak from a few major infection sources, but rather infections caused by mild or asymptomatic cases accumulated in the community over more than 10 months, occurring through various daily situations."

According to the quarantine authorities, the average daily number of domestic confirmed cases over the recent week from the 6th to the 12th was 662.0, an increase of 174.3 cases compared to the previous week (November 29 to December 5, 487.7 cases). Regarding infection routes over the recent week, contact with prior confirmed cases was the highest at 2,117 cases (43.8%), followed by cluster outbreaks at 1,000 cases (20.7%), hospitals and nursing facilities at 417 cases (8.6%), and imported cases at 194 cases (4.0%). Cases under investigation for infection routes numbered 1,099 (22.8%). The average daily number of confirmed cases aged 60 and over in the recent week was 219, with the proportion of those aged 60 and above among total confirmed cases rising significantly from 22.9% the previous week to 32.0%.

Jung urged, "As much as possible, cancel family and acquaintance gatherings, and if attendance is unavoidable, be sure to wear masks and minimize the duration of the gathering." She added, "If there are high-risk individuals aged 60 or older among cohabiting family members, special caution and management such as restricting visitors and careful attention to symptomatic individuals are necessary."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.