Why the Record High COVID-19 Cases... Insufficient Social Distancing, Seasonal Factors, and Limits of Epidemiological Investigation

No Effect of Social Distancing... Infections Erupt Everywhere in Daily Life, Unable to Trace

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Seo So-jeong] On the 13th, the number of new confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in South Korea exceeded 1,000 for the first time, setting a new record high. It has been nearly 11 months since the first domestic confirmed case was reported on January 20. On this day, the total number of new confirmed cases was 1,030, an increase of 80 from the previous day (950), continuing the record high for two consecutive days.

Experts particularly predict that the surge in confirmed cases will continue for the time being. Typically, the number of tests conducted on weekends significantly decreases compared to weekdays, leading to a decrease in confirmed cases. Although the number of tests conducted over the weekend decreased by about 14,000 compared to the previous weekday, the number of confirmed cases sharply increased, leading to forecasts that four-digit confirmed cases will continue next week. The positivity rate, calculated as the ratio of confirmed cases to the number of tests conducted recently, has also risen significantly. The positivity rate on the previous day was 4.16%, a sharp increase from 2.46% the day before.

Experts: "Proactive social distancing measures should have been implemented"
Criticism that "the response was delayed while waiting to see the effects of distancing"

Experts cited three reasons for the record-high number of confirmed cases. The first is that proactive social distancing upgrades were not implemented. Professor Eom Jung-sik of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Gachon University Gil Medical Center said, "Since mid-last month, the situation in the metropolitan area worsened significantly, and many experts have been calling for an upgrade in the distancing level. It takes at least one to two weeks to see the effects of an upgrade, but the number of confirmed cases surged before the effects could be assessed, so social distancing should have been proactively strengthened. The government largely missed this opportunity," he pointed out.

The quarantine authorities reorganized the social distancing system into five levels at the beginning of last month and applied Level 1 from the 7th of the same month. When new confirmed cases in the metropolitan area rose to the 200s by mid-November, the level was raised to 1.5, and five days later, the metropolitan area was upgraded to Level 2. When daily confirmed cases reached around 500 at the end of November, from the 1st of this month, the metropolitan area was raised from Level 2 to a '2+α' level with additional quarantine rules, but the situation only worsened. Eventually, from the 8th of this month, the metropolitan area was raised to Level 2.5, and nationwide to Level 2, to be applied for three weeks until the end of the year.

Choi Dae-jip, president of the Korean Medical Association, said, "Until early last month, confirmed cases were around 100, but the increase to 1,000 was due to the delay in upgrading social distancing levels. Earlier this month, the Medical Association issued a government recommendation to temporarily raise social distancing to Level 3, but the government hesitated, and the surge continues," he said.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The second reason is seasonal factors. The cold and dry winter weather has increased the virus's activity and transmissibility. Increased indoor activities in poorly ventilated spaces have created an environment conducive to infection spread. Professor Kim Woo-joo of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital said, "The rapid increase in confirmed cases coincides with the peak winter season when virus activity is vigorous, which is a global phenomenon. As temperatures drop, the virus's transmissibility strengthens, and droplets dry out, allowing them to travel farther," he explained.

Virus thrives in cold weather
Sharp increase in 'unknown infection routes'... limits of epidemiological investigation

The third reason is that the temporary surge in confirmed cases has reached the limits of epidemiological investigation capacity. Recently, large-scale cluster infections have continued in metropolitan area churches and nursing hospitals, and clusters have erupted in everyday places such as academies, restaurants, and singing classes. Notably, the proportion of confirmed cases with unknown infection routes has significantly increased. According to quarantine authorities, in the past two weeks, the proportion of patients whose infection route is unknown has reached the 20% range.

Professor Kim Dong-hyun of Hallym University College of Medicine said, "The recent positivity rate of around 4% indicates that latent infections are spreading in the community. Until now, South Korea has managed the crisis with epidemiological investigation infrastructure and systems, but the recent sudden surge in confirmed cases has increased the proportion of cases with unidentified infection routes, and as 'n-th generation infections' increase, the capacity for epidemiological investigation has reached its limit," he said. Professor Kim added, "This is the greatest crisis for K-quarantine. With severe bed shortages and epidemiological investigation capacity unable to keep up with the speed of confirmed cases, the active participation of the public in quarantine efforts is more crucial than anything else."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.