Professor Eom Jung-sik: "New confirmed cases will exceed 1,000... Level 2.5 measures are insufficient"

On the 4th, citizens are waiting to get tested at the COVID-19 screening clinic at Dongjak-gu Public Health Center in Seoul. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Juhee] As the number of new confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) was recorded at 631 as of the 6th, experts claim that the number of new COVID-19 cases may have already exceeded 1,000 and argue that social distancing should be immediately raised to level 3.

Professor Eom Jung-sik, an infectious disease specialist at Gachon University Gil Medical Center, appeared on CBS Radio's "Kim Hyun-jung's News Show" on the 7th and said, "Last weekend, the number of new confirmed cases was in the 600s, but the positivity rate was as high as 4.4%." The positivity rate refers to the ratio of confirmed cases to the number of tests conducted.

Professor Eom said, "On weekdays, more than 25,000 tests are conducted, and applying this positivity rate means there are more than 1,000 confirmed cases. Moreover, there are nearly twice as many people who are actually infected but have not been tested compared to the confirmed cases. Considering this, it is estimated that there were already more than 2,000 infected people since the week before last."

He continued, "Ultimately, social distancing at level 2.5 will not completely stop the spread. Even if level 2.5 is effective, we have to wait for the results for more than 1 to 2 weeks. If the decrease is gradual like this, the pattern of confirmed cases decreasing will be prolonged, leading to higher fatigue, which may cause the quarantine measures to fail and the number of confirmed cases to surge again," he warned.

Professor Eom pointed out, "Looking only at the metropolitan area, now is the time to immediately move to level 3. The characteristic of this wave is that infections are high among young people, especially those in their 20s to 40s. Some places that people in their 20s to 40s visit will be restricted under level 2.5, but it does not control the actual movement and contact among people during the week."

Regarding economic contraction due to strengthened quarantine measures, he said, "The current situation was created as a result of the authorities' careful consideration. The delay in deciding to raise the level and the inability to make bold decisions have worsened the situation, and we have been struggling for more than a month and a half."

He added, "We need to estimate the economic damage as well. We should decide whether it is less economically damaging to raise the level for a short and strong control and then lower it, or if it is more harmful for the economy to be contracted due to many confirmed cases over two or three months."

He expressed concern, "If the level 2.5 upgrade is implemented on the 8th and after two weeks it is evaluated to be ineffective, leading to a move to level 3, the repercussions will last until March or April next year, causing much greater economic damage."

Professor Eom also pointed out that hospital beds are insufficient due to the increase in COVID-19 confirmed cases.

He diagnosed, "The spread in the metropolitan area is too widespread, and the current diagnosis and treatment system may become overwhelmed. In the metropolitan area, it is becoming difficult to allocate beds when critical patients occur, and even after confirmation, dozens of patients sometimes have to wait without immediate transfer. If treatment is delayed, the number of deaths will inevitably increase, which is a very dangerous situation."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.