India's COVID-19 Infections Reach 74 Million... "Likely Tens of Times Higher Than Official Figures"

Indian Media Reports Citing Government Agency Investigation
High Infection Rates in Urban Slum Areas

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] A survey in India estimates that 74 million people aged 10 and above were already infected with the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) around last August.

On the 27th, India’s PTI news agency reported this citing serological survey data from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), a government-related agency.

ICMR stated, "By last August, about 1 in 15 Indians aged 10 and above (6.6%) appeared to have been exposed to COVID-19," adding, "especially, the infection rate was high in urban slum areas."

ICMR conducted this antibody formation rate survey on 29,082 people nationwide. India’s population is approximately 1.38 billion.

If ICMR’s analysis is correct, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in India is estimated to be dozens of times higher than the official announcement.

As of last August, the official cumulative confirmed cases in India were understood to be around 2 to 3 million.

Previous antibody surveys conducted by public and private sectors also suggested that a significant portion of the Indian population might have already been infected.

New Delhi authorities surveyed 21,387 people in early July and about 15,000 people in early August, finding antibodies in 23% and 29% respectively. A serological survey of 1,664 residents in Pune, western India (from July 20 to August 5), also found antibodies in 52%. Two surveys of Mumbai’s slum population showed antibody formation rates of 57% (first survey in June) and 45% (second survey in August).

ICMR said, "In most states of India, infections are expected to continue until herd immunity is formed."

Herd immunity refers to a state where a significant portion of the local population has immunity against a specific infectious disease. Once herd immunity is established, rapid spread of additional infections becomes difficult even if new cases occur.

However, opinions differ on the community antibody formation rate required to achieve herd immunity.

Some experts say this rate should reach 70-90%, while Professor Adam Klekciowski of the University of Strathclyde in the UK analyzed that 50-70% might be sufficient.

Meanwhile, according to India’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the cumulative number of COVID-19 confirmed cases reached 9,309,787 on this day, an increase of 43,082 from the previous day.

The daily new confirmed cases, which approached 100,000 in mid-September, have recently dropped significantly to around 30,000 to 40,000. The cumulative death toll on this day was 125,715, an increase of 492 from the previous day.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.