Director Kim Jun-hyung: "US Biden unlikely to revert to past on North Korea issue... Possibility of combining bottom-up and top-down approaches"

President-elect Biden's Remarks on North Korea "More Flexible Than Before"... Summit Possible Depending on North Korea's Actions
Biden Administration Likely to Mediate at Least in South Korea-Japan Conflict

Kim Jun-hyung, President of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, attended an invited lecture by the National Coalition for Economic Democratization and Peaceful Unification (Minpyeongryeon) held at the National Assembly Members' Office Building on the 9th, delivering a lecture on "Analysis of the U.S. Presidential Election Results and Prospects for Korea-U.S. Relations." Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Cheol-young] Kim Jun-hyung, president of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, forecasted that even with the Joe Biden administration taking office, it would be difficult to revert to the Barack Obama administration's 'strategic patience' regarding North Korea?U.S. relations, and that there is a possibility of combining the 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches depending on North Korea's actions.

On the 13th, Kim appeared on KBS Radio's 'Kim Kyung-rae's Strongest Current Affairs' and said that the North Korean nuclear issue has become a high priority for the U.S. since North Korea armed itself with nuclear weapons, and that it became a core issue between South Korea and the U.S. during President Donald Trump's summit meetings. He assessed, "It seems difficult to proceed with the Obama administration's eight years of strategic patience, which meant doing nothing until North Korea changed."

On the 12th, South Korean President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President-elect Joe Biden had their first phone call and agreed to closely cooperate on the North Korean nuclear issue and other Korean Peninsula matters.

In particular, Kim also analyzed that the Biden administration might mix the Democratic administration's 'bottom-up' approach with the 'top-down' approach taken by the Trump administration, depending on North Korea's behavior.

Kim said, "Overall, during President Trump's term, things were well done from the top but did not proceed well downward, while the Democratic approach is bottom-up but did not progress upward. Depending on North Korea's actions, the Biden administration might combine these two approaches."

Kim further evaluated that Biden's statements regarding North Korea have become more flexible compared to before and predicted that a North Korea?U.S. summit could be possible depending on North Korea's measures.

Kim explained, "(Biden) previously said he would not meet, but then said he would meet if North Korea takes measures regarding its nuclear program. This is more flexible than the Trump administration's strong stance that a meeting would only occur after North Korea's complete denuclearization. Therefore, depending on North Korea's actions, a summit is not entirely impossible."

He also forecasted that South Korea might gain more room to maneuver amid U.S.-China conflicts. Since the U.S. government must address domestic issues caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, South Korea's role in Northeast Asian affairs has become more important.

Kim analyzed, "It is true that South Korea is caught between the U.S. and China, but recently, South Korea-China relations and South Korea-U.S. relations have both been good. Although U.S.-China relations will remain difficult, since the Biden side has agreed with China on North Korea and climate agreements, if we actively engage with North Korea and China to bring these issues forward, there could be areas where South Korea gains more room to maneuver between the U.S. and China."

He also predicted a high possibility that the Biden administration will mediate in South Korea-Japan relations. Kim said that President Trump hardly intervened in South Korea-Japan relations, which continued to be difficult, and explained, "There are quite a few cases where U.S. mediation is needed. Although U.S. involvement can sometimes pressure South Korea, mediation seems necessary."

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