[The Editors' Verdict]In the Biden Era, Premature Expectations Are Dangerous

With Joe Biden elected as the next president of the United States, various forecasts and analyses are pouring in. Many predict that Biden will overturn many of the policies of the current Donald Trump administration. This is the so-called ABT (Anything But Trump) strategy. However, experts generally agree that there will be no return to the Obama administration of the past.

In reality, it is difficult for President-elect Biden to completely ignore the achievements and failures of President Trump over the past four years. This is true both in terms of domestic political circumstances and international political science. Before the election, various polls predicted a Blue Wave in which not only the presidency but also both houses of Congress would be swept by the Democratic Party, but the results were otherwise. The Senate is still controlled by the Republicans, and the number of House members secured was fewer than expected. There is an analysis that the Democratic Party essentially lost. It can be interpreted that American voters disliked Trump but did not cast votes against the Republican Party’s policy line.

Biden cannot ignore such domestic circumstances. During his campaign, he already moderately revised many of his pledges. Some are difficult to distinguish from President Trump’s policy lines. A representative example is the China policy. Among Trump’s policies, the tough stance on China received overwhelming support from the American public. President-elect Biden is also expected to continue this stance and take measures to check China. However, it is likely that he will pressure China together with like-minded allies based on multilateralism principles.

In this case, our position may become narrower than during the Trump administration. If the U.S. immediately declares its return to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), South Korea’s trade strategy, which has focused on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), could face complications. As is well known, RCEP is led by China, and the Obama administration previously focused on TPP to counterbalance it. This could create a very ambiguous situation for South Korea. Of course, there is also an analysis that since the U.S. withdrew from TPP, separate discussions on the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), centered on Japan and Australia, have progressed considerably, leaving little room for the U.S. to rejoin.

The Trump administration’s protectionism and reshoring policies are showing signs of being further strengthened. President-elect Biden emphasized “Made in all of America, by all of America’s workers” on the transition team’s website. For Korean companies, this could increase the burden of expanding investment in facilities within the U.S.

Biden has announced that he will sign the re-entry into the Paris Climate Agreement immediately upon his inauguration on January 20 next year. It is clear that the upcoming Biden administration will drive efforts to address climate change and promote eco-friendly policies. The transition to a green economy will be the biggest difference distinguishing the Biden administration from the current Trump administration.

With the COVID-19 pandemic raising awareness of global warming, the world is already undergoing a major shift toward eco-friendly industries. Following Europe, China, and Japan, the world’s strongest country, the U.S., has announced a carbon neutrality roadmap, making carbon reduction a core issue for industries for decades to come. Unprecedented regulations will emerge, likely becoming new trade barriers. Of course, new opportunities will also arise. Korean companies urgently need to respond to this.

Some ruling party officials are making a fuss that President-elect Biden’s policy direction aligns with the Moon Jae-in administration’s Green New Deal. Rather than vague expectations, thorough analysis and preparation are needed at this time.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.