'Biden' Presidency Brings Mixed Prospects for Korea-US Issues... Defense Cost-Sharing Talks and Wartime OPCON Transfer Outlook

Biden Prefers 'Bottom-Up' Approach... Expects Defense Cost-Sharing Agreement of '10%+α' Acceptable to Korea
Transfer of Wartime Operational Control Faces Difficulties... Controversy Over USFK Reduction Likely to Continue

[Asia Economy Military Specialist Yang Nak-gyu, Reporter Lim Cheol-young] Domestic security experts predict that if Democratic candidate Joe Biden ultimately wins the U.S. presidential election, the outlook on current issues between South Korea and the U.S. will be mixed. Unlike President Donald Trump, who preferred a 'top-down' approach to negotiations, Biden favors a 'bottom-up' method based on multilateralism, gathering opinions from working-level officials and experts. Therefore, it is expected that bilateral conflicts such as defense cost-sharing negotiations will find common ground. However, there are concerns that North Korea is likely to provoke if next year's South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises resume.

Experts anticipate that the 11th Special Measures Agreement (SMA) on defense cost-sharing, which has been stalled due to the Trump administration's excessive demands for increased contributions, could reach a compromise at a 'reasonable and fair level' advocated by South Korea after Biden takes office. Kim Hyun-wook, head of the Americas Research Division at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, said in a phone interview with Asia Economy on the 6th, "Biden prioritizes the South Korea-U.S. alliance and is likely to accept the 13% increase proposed earlier by the working-level negotiators," adding, "Unlike President Trump, he will not indirectly pressure by linking the SMA to North Korea-U.S. relations or U.S. troop redeployment issues."

Even if the defense cost-sharing issue is resolved smoothly, speculation about the reduction of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea is expected to continue. This is because, under the U.S. concept of 'Dynamic Force Employment (DFE),' there will inevitably be moves to expand rotational deployments and strengthen strategic flexibility. Kim Yeol-soo, head of the Security Strategy Office at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, said, "There will be no reduction of U.S. troops in South Korea for the time being," and added, "However, discussions on the redeployment of U.S. forces in South Korea and Japan to counter China will continue."

The issue of transferring wartime operational control (OPCON) is expected to remain difficult to resolve. Although the 52nd Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) joint statement this year stated that evaluation procedures such as verification of Full Operational Capability (FOC) related to OPCON transfer will continue, specific details such as the timing of implementation were not included. Considering Biden's principle-oriented nature, the South Korean government's desire for a swift OPCON transfer is likely to face obstacles.

Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the Far East Research Institute at Gyeongnam University predicted, "To proceed with OPCON transfer, South Korea and the U.S. need to conduct joint exercises next year, but North Korea is highly likely to provoke in the first half of next year using this as an opportunity," adding, "Ultimately, South Korea and the U.S. will face a dilemma between OPCON transfer and preventing provocations."

Professor Lee Jung-chul of Soongsil University also expressed concerns at the 2nd Jeonpa Forum hosted by the National Security Strategy Institute held at the Four Seasons Hotel in Jongno-gu, Seoul, the previous afternoon, titled 'The Korean Peninsula After the U.S. Presidential Election: What Should We Prepare For?' He said, "While the Biden administration reviews its (North Korea) policy, the U.S. will have no choice but to adopt a 'benign neglect' strategy toward North Korea," and added, "Next March's exercises will likely be more intense military drills than those in August this year, and it is unlikely that North Korea will remain passive."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

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