The Myth of 'Democratic Party Advantage' Shaken... Early Voting Surges in US Swing States

Four of the Top 5 States Are Battlegrounds... Texas Sees 7.8 Million Early Votes
Republican Supporters Join, Outcome Unpredictable

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy New York=Correspondent Baek Jong-min] The number of early voters in the U.S. presidential election has approached 70 million. Not only Democratic supporters but also Republican supporters have competitively joined in, and among the five states with the highest early voting turnout, four except California have emerged as battleground states. This has led to interpretations that the notion of early voting favoring the Democrats is losing its persuasiveness.

According to the U.S. Election Project, which compiles early voting data, as of 6 p.m. on the 27th (local time), the number of early voters was counted at 69.64 million. Mail-in votes accounted for 46.51 million, and in-person early votes were 23.13 million.

By state, Texas had the highest number of early voters at 7.8 million. California followed with 7.4 million, and Florida with 6.42 million. In addition, early voting increases were notable in Georgia and North Carolina.

Local media have expressed surprise at the enthusiasm for early voting in Texas. The number of early votes in Texas has already reached 87% of the total votes cast in the entire state during the last presidential election. The Washington Post (WP) reported, "No region has seen such a surge in early voters as Texas," adding, "Especially nine counties including the outskirts of Austin have surpassed the total votes from the last presidential election."

Texas is attracting attention because it has 38 electoral votes, the second highest in the U.S. after California. Its impact on the presidential election is inevitably significant. Although traditionally a Republican stronghold, the recent rapid increase in the Hispanic population is shifting the state toward a Democratic inclination.

According to RealClearPolitics, President Trump is only 2.6 percentage points ahead of Biden in Texas, making it appropriate to call it a "new battleground state." In the last presidential election, Trump won by a 9 percentage point margin. WP evaluated, "In the last election, voter turnout among young voters with Democratic tendencies in Texas was low, but this election shows a different picture with an influx of campaign funds." Regarding this, a voter in San Antonio said, "Young people are coming in, but this is still Texas," expressing confidence in a Republican victory.

The early voting in Texas, resulting from competitive participation by both Democratic and Republican supporters, makes the outcome even harder to predict.

The New York Times (NYT) reported that experts are paying attention to the surge in in-person early voting for this reason. The original scenario was that if many Republican supporters flock to vote on Election Day, November 3rd, President Trump would lead on that day, but Biden would catch up through counting mail-in ballots. However, if early voting increases, the situation could be entirely different. Currently, 48% of early voters support the Democratic Party, while 29% support the Republican Party.

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden visited Georgia, where the state is shifting from Republican-leaning to battleground status, to appeal for support. The Democratic Party has not won in Georgia since the 1992 presidential election.

However, recent Civics poll results show Biden leading President Trump by 5 percentage points in Georgia. The NYT reported, "Georgia is turning purple," meaning it is shifting from red Republican to blue Democratic tendencies, resulting in a purple hue. In his speech that day, Biden emphasized "healing and recovery for America." First Lady Melania Trump held her first solo campaign rally in Pennsylvania that day, appealing to women for support of her husband.

Melania said, "I don't always agree with the way my husband speaks," but emphasized, "Donald is a warrior. We need to keep him in the White House to finish what he started and ensure America continues to prosper."

Meanwhile, Michael Medeiros, portfolio manager at Wellington Management, a U.S. asset management firm, said at an online meeting of the International Financial Council, a gathering of Korean financial institutions in New York, that while the Democrats are likely to control the presidency and both houses of Congress, "If they win Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, they can succeed in re-election." He also predicted that if the Democrats win the election, increased fiscal spending could lead to inflation in 2021.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.