Manufacturing Giants Germany and China Hit by 'Japanese-Style Low Birthrate and Aging Population'

Germany Sees Population Decline for the First Time in 10 Years Due to Sharp Drop in Immigrants
China's Birth Rate Rises to 10.48 per 1,000, Highest in 70 Years

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin, Reporter Na Ju-seok] The population decline crisis has spread to manufacturing powerhouses Germany and China.

Germany experienced a population decrease for the first time in 10 years due to reduced immigration amid the COVID-19 pandemic, and China also began to face a full-fledged population crisis as the number of newborns fell to the lowest level in about 70 years. When factors that increase population such as childbirth and immigration disappear, the economic vitality of these countries, which are regarded as global growth engines, declines. It cannot be ruled out that this will have a negative impact on the global economy in the medium to long term.

According to the German Federal Statistical Office on the 13th (local time), Germany's population in the first half of this year was 83.1 million, down 40,000 from the second half of last year. This is the first time since the second half of 2010 that Germany's population has decreased.

The population decline in Germany is largely due to a decrease in immigrant inflow. Germany increased immigration by accepting one million refugees during the refugee crisis in 2015-2016. Even in the first half of last year, Germany's population increased by a net 167,000 through immigration. However, the increase in the first half of this year was only 74,000. With immigration reduced amid the COVID-19 crisis, Germany's economy ultimately experienced a net decrease.

Immigration has significantly contributed to Germany's population growth. Excluding immigration, Germany already belongs to countries with declining populations. This year, the number of deaths in Germany exceeded births by 112,000. In the first half of last year, deaths also exceeded births by 105,000. Germany's birth rate was able to rise thanks to refugees included in the immigration flow. In 2007, the average number of children born per woman was 1.33, but as immigrants with a strong tendency for larger families increased, the birth rate rose to 1.57. As immigration decreased, the birth rate also showed a downward trend.

The decrease in immigrant inflow also accelerates aging. The population aged 85 and older in Germany was 1.2 million in 1999 but increased to 2.4 million last year. The population aged 65 and older is also rapidly increasing, leading to higher costs for pensions and health insurance.

Concerns about a Japan-style low birthrate and aging crisis have grown in Germany. In particular, worries about productivity, economic growth, and fiscal matters are significant as the economically active population stagnates.

Florian Hans, an economist at German investment bank Berenberg Bank, said, "Population growth is one of the main drivers of economic growth through an increase in the labor force," adding, "If Germany's population stagnates, the country's economic growth may stagnate or even contract in the future." Within Germany, voices have emerged suggesting that with reduced immigration, measures such as utilizing women and the elderly as labor forces should be considered. There are also calls to explore ways to utilize available labor, such as raising the retirement age.

In China, which boasts a population of 1.4 billion, declining birth rates are a concern. According to China's state-run Global Times and Huanqiu Shibao on the 14th, the number of newborns in China at the end of 2019 was 14.65 million, down 580,000 from the previous year. The birth rate fell to 10.48 per 1,000 people, the lowest in 70 years. The number of newborns in China has been decreasing annually since peaking at 17.86 million in 2016, with 17.23 million in 2017, 15.23 million in 2018, and 14.65 million in 2019.

On the other hand, the population aged 65 and older is rapidly increasing. According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, the elderly population aged 65 and above was 106 million in 2009 but rose by 50 million to 160 million last year.

As the birth rate sharply declines, local governments in China are revising regulations that restrict childbirth. The Global Times and Huanqiu Shibao reported that regions including Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and Ningxia have removed regulations that allowed dismissal of civil servants (including those in state-owned enterprises) for exceeding childbirth limits. Huanqiu Shibao evaluated this regulation removal as "a reform of China's regional family planning policies."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.