Tensions Over North Korea's Jo Seong-gil Incident Heighten Sensitivity in Inter-Korean Relations

It has been reported on the 6th that Jo Seong-gil, former North Korean charg? d'affaires to Italy, who suddenly disappeared ahead of his return in November 2018, has entered South Korea.
Ha Tae-kyung, a member of the National Assembly Intelligence Committee and the People Power Party's spokesperson, stated on his Facebook that "Former Ambassador Jo Seong-gil entered South Korea in July last year and is understood to be under the protection of the authorities."
Regarding this, a National Intelligence Service official said in a phone call, "We cannot confirm."
The photo shows former Ambassador Jo attending a cultural event near Treviso, Veneto, Italy, in March 2018.

It has been confirmed that Cho Seong-gil, the former North Korean deputy ambassador to Italy who disappeared in November 2018 and was believed to have defected to the Western world, secretly chose to go to South Korea and has been staying in the country for over a year. Cho's move to South Korea is notable as it marks the defection of a top-level North Korean official to South Korea for the first time in over 20 years since Hwang Jang-yop, the former International Secretary of the Workers' Party, in 1997. Given North Korea's historically extremely sensitive reaction to high-ranking diplomatic officials defecting to South Korea, this is expected to act as an unexpected variable in inter-Korean relations.

President Moon Jae-in reignited the call for a 'Declaration of the End of the War' at the UN General Assembly last September, signaling the restart of the Korean Peninsula peace process. However, following the shooting incident involving South Korean civilians in the West Sea and now this incident, it seems unlikely that inter-Korean relations will warm up anytime soon. The government has proposed reconnecting military communication lines and conducting joint investigations in the West Sea to the North, but the likelihood of a positive response from North Korea has diminished further.

However, given the highly revealing nature of this incident, North Korea is expected to carefully monitor the South Korean government's response and Cho's actions, adjusting the level of its offensive accordingly. Fundamentally, while North Korea cannot hide its displeasure over this defection incident, the prevailing view is that it is too early to assess the impact on inter-Korean relations.

Choi Yong-hwan, head of the Security Strategy Research Office at the Korea Institute for National Security Strategy, said, "Since the situation that had been under the surface after Cho's disappearance has now come to light, North Korea may issue a warning message telling them not to act rashly."

He added, "It is too early to evaluate this defection as a negative factor for inter-Korean relations. The key will be what actions Cho takes in South Korea." Choi noted, "With two members of the National Assembly who are defectors emerging simultaneously, North Korea is sensitive to defector activities. If Cho engages in such activities, North Korea will show displeasure, but if he remains quiet, North Korea may not necessarily make an issue of it."

Hong Min, head of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, "There will inevitably be some impact on inter-Korean relations, but the influence will not be very significant." He explained, "It depends on whether Cho consistently insisted on going to South Korea of his own will, or if he intended to go elsewhere but had no choice but to come to South Korea."

He added, "If Cho did not actively want to go to South Korea and is extremely reluctant to be publicly disclosed as he is now, North Korea may feel displeased but is unlikely to react harshly."

In the past, North Korea's sensitive reactions to figures like Hwang Jang-yop, former Workers' Party Secretary, or Tae Yong-ho, former North Korean envoy to the UK (now a member of the People Power Party), were because they actively engaged in regime subversion activities against North Korea.

Tae Yong-ho, who publicly encouraged Cho to come to South Korea, issued a statement saying, "For North Korean diplomats who left behind close relatives and children in North Korea, the disclosure of information about themselves is a very important humanitarian issue related to the fate of those relatives and children." He added, "The treatment and punishment level of families left behind in the North vary depending on where the defected diplomats are."

He continued, "Most former North Korean diplomats in South Korea live quietly out of concern for the safety of their children and relatives left behind in the North, and our government does not disclose their identities on humanitarian grounds. If Cho Seong-gil is indeed in South Korea, I hope our media will refrain from intense focus and exposure, considering the feelings of a father who left his daughter in the North."

Therefore, the government is expected to manage the situation in a way that avoids provoking North Korea as much as possible to prevent side effects from this incident. The National Intelligence Service has stated that it cannot confirm the facts regarding Cho's arrival in South Korea.

Meanwhile, Cho served as deputy ambassador after the Italian government expelled Moon Jeong-nam, then North Korean ambassador to Italy, in September 2017 following North Korea's sixth nuclear test. He comes from an elite diplomatic family, with both his father and father-in-law having served as ambassadors in North Korea, and is known to be fluent in four languages including English, Italian, and French.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.