The Hidden Reason Behind MB's '5.31 Million Vote Landslide Victory', Record Low Voter Turnout

[Feature] Four Keywords Deciding the Presidential Election ④ Voter Turnout... 2007 Presidential Election with 63% Turnout Where Even the Democratic Party's 'Jiptokki' Turned Away

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's NoteThe presidency is the dream of politicians. However, not everyone is given the opportunity. One must overcome several political hurdles and ride the tide of the times. Looking back at the history of South Korean presidential elections, key factors that shaped the outcomes can be identified. Based on keywords that influenced the presidential election landscape such as region, candidates, electoral dynamics, and voter turnout, we analyze past presidential elections in four parts.

The 2007 presidential election was a 'lackluster election' where even those with little interest in politics could predict the winner. This was because the winning and losing parties were anticipated even before the official race began.

At that time, the Grand National Party was expected to reclaim power after 10 years. The ruling party and competitor, the United Democratic Party, sought opportunities for a turnaround until the very end of the election but fell short.

The vote difference between Grand National Party candidate Lee Myung-bak and United Democratic Party candidate Chung Dong-young was a staggering 5,317,708 votes. Lee Myung-bak received 11,492,389 votes (48.67%), while Chung Dong-young received 6,174,681 votes (26.14%).

The 5.31 million vote gap between the two candidates was the largest since the introduction of direct presidential elections in 1987. Even when Kim Young-sam of the Democratic Liberal Party, a major ruling party formed by the merger of three parties in the 1992 election, defeated Kim Dae-jung of the Democratic Party, the vote difference did not exceed 2 million.

On the morning of the 15th, when the 21st National Assembly election was held, voters are casting their ballots at a polling station set up at Sinyang Elementary School in Gwangjin-gu, Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

In the 2017 presidential election, Moon Jae-in of the Democratic Party won by a margin of 5,570,951 votes over Hong Joon-pyo of the Liberty Korea Party, breaking the 2007 record after 10 years. However, the 2007 election results remain notable for the overwhelming victory and crushing defeat.

It can also be said that Lee Myung-bak's competitiveness in the 2007 election was exceptional. In fact, by winning the Grand National Party's presidential primary, he was regarded as having effectively reserved the Blue House's new occupant.

An interesting point is that although Lee Myung-bak won by a 5.31 million vote margin in 2007, the actual number of votes he received was 3.2 million fewer than the 14,692,632 votes Moon Jae-in received in the 2012 election, which he lost.

This aspect invites reconsideration of the 2007 election. The method to win an election is surprisingly simple: getting more supporters to the polling stations is the easiest way to secure victory. In South Korea's presidential system, the candidate with even one more vote wins.

It means that even a one-vote difference makes the winner the winner. Despite Lee Myung-bak receiving 3.2 million fewer votes than Moon Jae-in in 2012, one became the winner and the other the loser due to the relativity of presidential elections.

To conclude, in the 2007 election, traditional Democratic Party supporters hesitated to go to the polls. The expectation of defeat discouraged voting, and factors such as the formation process of the United Democratic Party and mixed feelings toward candidate Chung Dong-young also influenced voter turnout.

A notable point in the 2007 election is the voter turnout. Generally, it is analyzed that higher turnout favors Democratic Party-affiliated parties, while lower turnout benefits the People Power Party-affiliated parties, but this is not always the case. In the 2012 election, despite a higher-than-expected turnout of 75.8%, the Democratic candidate lost.

So, what was the voter turnout in the 2007 election? It was only 63.0%. This means nearly 4 out of 10 eligible voters did not participate. The low turnout was not limited to specific regions but was widespread across the country.

The 63.0% turnout in 2007 was the lowest since the introduction of direct elections in 1987. Lee Myung-bak won more easily as the opposing candidate's supporters did not come out to vote. Even if Chung Dong-young's supporters had participated, it would have been difficult to change the outcome, but the record 5.31 million vote defeat likely would not have occurred.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.