'Shy Trump' Storm Reemerges: "Many Silent Republican Supporters"

Republican Supporters More Likely to Withhold Honest Answers in Polls
Biden Leads in Current Polls, but Concerns Rise Over Hidden Trump Supporters Rallying

President Donald Trump of the United States [Photo by AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] With the official nomination conventions for the U.S. Republican and Democratic presidential candidates concluded, President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden have officially entered the election campaign for the November 3 presidential election. Recent polls show Biden leading, while attention is focused on whether the "Shy Trump" voters?who played a key role in Trump's 2016 victory?will once again exert influence.

According to Bloomberg and others on the 28th (local time), CloudResearch, based in Queens, New York, conducted a study of 2,000 registered voters and found that Republican supporters and independents without party affiliation are less likely to openly disclose their preferred candidate in polls compared to Democratic supporters. "Shy Trump" refers to voters who support President Trump but do not reveal their opinions in polls.

Among Democratic supporters, 5.4% said they do not honestly disclose their preferred candidate, while 10.5% of independents and 11.7% of Republican supporters responded similarly. This indicates that Republican supporters are more reluctant than Democrats to reveal their opinions in polls. Especially in telephone surveys, 10.1% of Trump supporters did not answer truthfully about their preferred candidate, which is twice the rate of Biden supporters at 5.1%.

Some in U.S. politics, including anti-Trump groups, have suggested that President Trump's support may be higher than polls indicate, based on this background. In fact, on the 26th, Steve Schmidt, one of the founders of the anti-Trump conservative super PAC "Lincoln Project," appeared on a broadcast and said he believes Trump's poll support may be "at least 1 to 2 percentage points lower than the actual level." The Trump campaign is also working to rally the Shy Trump voters, arguing that polls do not accurately reflect reality.

In this election, Biden and other key Democratic figures have continued to attack President Trump. The election dynamic is not simply "Trump vs. Biden" but effectively "Trump vs. anti-Trump," leading to analyses that Shy Trump voters may unite even more strongly in response. Voters who do not disclose their preferred candidate in polls reportedly have concerns about poll reliability, the linkage of personal information with responses, and retaliation due to revealing political views.

According to RealClearPolitics (RCP), which aggregated results from eight recent polls, former Vice President Biden's national support averages 49.6%, leading President Trump’s 42.5% by 7.1 percentage points. In polls conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post (WP), the gap was as wide as 10 percentage points, but a poll released by the conservative-leaning Rasmussen showed a close race with only a 1 percentage point difference.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.