At Stage 3, the Economy Also Stops... Focused Management Only on High-Risk Areas and Groups

Government in Cautious Mode on Social Distancing Upgrade?
Continued Multiple Quarantine Measures
Effectiveness Judged Lower Than Before
Maintaining Level 2 to Induce Stabilization Phase

On the 28th, as the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) worsened, citizens at the screening clinic of Guro-gu Public Health Center in Seoul received guidance from medical staff and underwent testing. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporter Choi Dae-yeol] The government's cautious approach to raising social distancing to Level 3 amid the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is interpreted as due to multiple reasons. First, various indicators do not meet the criteria for raising social distancing to the highest level, and the effectiveness of quarantine measures has declined compared to the past due to the prolonged situation over several months.

Rather than restricting the activities of the entire population, the decision was also influenced by the judgment to focus on managing high-risk areas or groups to move toward a stabilization phase. The decision to extend Level 2 social distancing for one more week instead of raising it by this weekend appears to be a comprehensive consideration of these factors.

No Doubling, New Cases Still Fluctuating

Level 3 social distancing is considered the most stringent quarantine measure the government can take, as it prohibits gatherings of 10 or more people not only in public sectors but also in private meetings and events. While it may be necessary solely from the perspective of preventing virus transmission, opinions are divided among experts due to its significant impact on society and the economy. Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun referred to Level 3 social distancing as the "last card," acknowledging the considerable collateral damage such measures could cause.

As the nationwide outbreak spread through churches and rallies in the metropolitan area, health authorities are weighing the risk level in real-time to decide on raising the level. However, looking only at the incidence indicators that serve as criteria for Level 3 escalation, they fall short of the standards. Although the situation feels riskier, health authorities consider it manageable.

During the recent outbreak phase, the average daily confirmed cases over two weeks have exceeded the criterion of 100 cases, but there has not been a single instance of doubling?where cases increase more than twice in a day. One of the criteria for raising to Level 3 is doubling occurring twice or more in a week. The newly confirmed cases on this day were 371 (including 12 imported cases), slightly fewer than the previous day.

On the 28th, as the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) worsened, a notice related to the numerous confirmed cases was posted in a corridor-style apartment in Guro-gu, Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

Level 3 Prohibits Gatherings of 10 or More
Struggling Economy on the Brink, Risk of Collapse

Additionally, since the decision structure involves qualitative assessment of ICU capacity and characteristics of outbreak areas, as well as comprehensive consideration of experts' opinions and public sentiment, it was deemed inappropriate to escalate at this stage. While some criteria were not met during the Level 2 escalation, proactive measures were taken, but for Level 3, health authorities have declared they will consider it only after all criteria are met.

Above all, because Level 3 social distancing is a highly stringent measure that can halt daily life, the damage to the economy and society is on a different scale compared to previous distancing levels. Level 3 prohibits gatherings of 10 or more people in both public and private settings. All multi-use facilities must close by 9 PM. Small business owners and self-employed individuals have been severely affected by over six months of quarantine measures, and Level 3 is seen as pushing them off the cliff.

On the 27th, as the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) continued, a rental notice was posted on Yonsei-ro in Sinchon, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul. On the same day, the Bank of Korea forecasted that South Korea's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for this year would be limited to -1.3% due to the resurgence of COVID-19 and other factors. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

Low Compliance Even at Level 2
Resistance to Strict Measures... Church Opposition

Low compliance with Level 2 social distancing is also a factor causing hesitation to escalate. According to health authorities, mobile phone data from the metropolitan area over the past weekend showed only about a 20% decrease in movement compared to the previous week, with public transportation and credit card usage decreasing by about 19% and 12%, respectively. Compared to the 40% decrease during the Shincheonji Jesus Church outbreak limited to Daegu and Gyeongbuk in February-March, this indicates a diminished sense of urgency.

Director Jeong Eun-kyung of the Central Disease Control Headquarters repeatedly urged people to "stay at home," emphasizing the importance of voluntary participation by citizens. At the Living Quarantine Committee meeting reviewing the possibility of raising social distancing levels, most members agreed on the need for measures to enhance the effectiveness of each level.

As the outbreak spreads nationwide centered on churches, some churches openly declare their intention to continue in-person worship, showing growing resistance to prolonged quarantine measures. At Sarang Jeil Church, the largest cluster outbreak in the metropolitan area, about two weeks after the first confirmed case, approximately two-thirds of the identified contacts have not undergone testing. Regarding the Seoul downtown rally on the 15th, identified as a catalyst for nationwide spread, over 80% have still not been tested. Unlike past cluster infections where contacts hid, this church has been organizing resistance by filing lawsuits against administrative authorities.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.