Incubation Period and Diagnostic Testing Data
Observing Weekend Social Distancing Compliance
Attention on Possible Surge in the Next Few Days

Jung Eun-kyung, Head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters <Image: Yonhap News>

Jung Eun-kyung, Head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters

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[Asia Economy Reporter Choi Dae-yeol] Jeong Eun-kyeong, head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters (photo), repeatedly urged people to "stay at home" during the regular briefing on the 21st, just before the weekend. Usually, she delivers messages in a calm and concise tone, but at this briefing, she asked to stay home five times. This was evidence of the urgent situation where it is difficult to stop the spread of the virus without reducing contact between people, as the COVID-19 outbreak is rapidly spreading across the Seoul metropolitan area.


As COVID-19 spreads nationwide, the number of new confirmed cases on the 26th reached the 300s again after three days. Since the 14th, when cluster infections began in earnest, the number has been in the triple digits for 13 consecutive days. The problem is that the latter half of this week is expected to be a turning point in the infection situation, according to health authorities. Whether Head Jeong's appeal has resonated with the public will soon be determined by the number of new confirmed cases, especially those involving new cluster outbreaks or patients with unknown infection routes. If people did not reduce their interactions over the weekend and the virus spread, the cases infected then will be counted with a delay of several days, possibly starting from the latter half of this week.


The situation is not easy. Fatigue has accumulated due to months of ongoing quarantine measures, and a subtle loosening atmosphere has spread unnoticed in many places. Contact tracing is difficult due to events such as the Sarang Jeil Church in Seongbuk-gu, Seoul, and the urban rally on the 15th, and simultaneous cluster infections are erupting nationwide. This has delayed epidemiological investigations, making it hard to keep up with the virus's transmission speed. In some regions, the infection reproduction number, which measures how many people one patient infects, has exceeded 2. This means the number of cases could increase exponentially at any time.


On the 26th, 320 new confirmed cases were reported, including 229 domestic cases in the Seoul metropolitan area and 78 in non-metropolitan areas. Cluster outbreaks have grown in non-metropolitan regions such as Gangwon, Chungnam, and Jeonnam, with new confirmed cases exceeding double digits. This is why health authorities consider the situation to be in the early stages of nationwide spread. Some speculate that the upward trend may have slowed compared to nearly 400 cases over the past weekend, but health authorities do not agree at all. They have taken a cautious stance, saying the situation in the latter half of this week, when social distancing effects may appear, must be observed.


There are also worrying signs that health authorities least want to face, such as a sharp increase in severe and critical patients and consecutive deaths within days after confirmation. As of the previous day, the number of severe and critical patients was 43, nearly five times higher than a week ago (9 on the 18th). On the 24th, a patient died two days after confirmation, and earlier on the 20th, a patient died during the hospitalization process after testing positive.





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