COVID-19 Medical Staff: "Early Next Month, 130 Critical Patients in Seoul Metropolitan Area... Additional ICU Beds Secured"

Simulation of the Central Clinical Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases
Elderly Patients in the Seoul Metropolitan Area Rise to 30% Range
Severe Cases Expected to Increase by 10 Daily Going Forward

On the 25th, Joo Young-su, head of the COVID-19 Joint Response Situation Room, is speaking at a press conference held at the Research Building of the National Medical Center in Jung-gu, Seoul, for the 'COVID-19 Joint Response Situation Room and Central Clinical Committee for Emerging Infectious Diseases.'

[Asia Economy Reporter Choi Dae-yeol] If the current trend of the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in the Seoul metropolitan area continues, the number of severe patients is predicted to exceed 130 next month. This projection considers the ages of recent new confirmed cases and is about 50 more than the currently operational intensive care unit (ICU) beds.

Joo Young-soo, head of the COVID-19 Joint Response Situation Room formed within the Central Clinical Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases, held a press conference on the 25th to announce this forecast. This committee is responsible for sharing clinical information and treatment guidelines for COVID-19 patients in South Korea. Since mid-month, with hundreds of new confirmed cases daily mainly in the metropolitan area, the government decided to share hospital beds across the region and established the joint response situation room within the committee.

After analyzing the age distribution of new confirmed cases, the rate of progression to severe cases, and average hospitalization periods, the Central Clinical Committee expects that severe cases in the metropolitan area will steadily occur at around 10 patients daily, surpassing a cumulative total of 100 by the 29th. The number is projected to increase to 124 by the end of this month and 134 in early next month.

According to the committee, the incidence rate of severe cases is about 2% for people in their 50s, 8% for those in their 60s, 16% for those in their 70s, and 25% for those aged 80 and above, showing a sharp increase with age. After being confirmed positive and hospitalized, patients typically worsen to severe cases after about five days, with an average hospitalization period estimated at around 21 days. The scale and age distribution of new confirmed cases were averaged based on data from the metropolitan area between the 14th and 24th to make this projection.

Joo said, "The current cluster infections in the metropolitan area have a relatively high proportion of elderly patients aged 60 and above?31% in Seoul and Incheon, and about 38% in Gyeonggi Province. We need to provide treatment suitable for elderly patients and operate hospital beds jointly to reduce the mortality rate."

The Korean Society of Critical Care Medicine estimates that there are currently about 85 ICU beds in the metropolitan area. If the current scale of new confirmed cases continues, there may be a shortage of about 50 beds. In response, the joint response situation room, together with health authorities, sought cooperation from large hospitals in the metropolitan area such as Seoul National University Hospital and secured an additional 51 ICU beds?31 in Seoul and 20 in Gyeonggi?establishing a system to accommodate patients if their numbers increase, Joo explained.

The joint response situation room includes a total of 26 personnel, including members from the Ministry of Health and Welfare’s Central Accident Response Headquarters, public health doctors, local government officials from Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi, and doctors from the National Medical Center. When patients occur, beds are allocated based on severity, and as the need to use limited beds efficiently increases, the operation has been initiated.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.