"US Economic Recovery Unlikely Next Year... Double-Dip Recession Possibility Remains Open"

NABE, GDP Recovery to Pre-COVID-19 Levels Only by 2022
Interest Rates Expected to Stay the Same or Decrease Until Next Year

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] U.S. economic experts predict that the U.S. economy will only return to pre-COVID-19 levels by the year after next.

According to U.S. media on the 24th (local time), a survey conducted among members of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) showed that the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is not expected to recover to pre-COVID-19 levels until before 2022.

They also left open the possibility of a double-dip recession, where the U.S. economy briefly recovers and then falls back into recession. About 80% of them responded that the likelihood of a double-dip is 25%.

They evaluated the U.S. government's and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) stimulus measures positively. Approximately three-quarters of them viewed the Fed's monetary policy as appropriate. This is the highest level of approval for the Fed's monetary policy since 2007.

NABE members expect interest rates to remain at current levels or decrease by the end of next year. Sixty percent of experts believed that interest rates could stay at 0?0.25% or fall further. Most experts forecast that interest rates will rise by the end of 2022, but the increase is expected to be within 1%.

Regarding government-level economic stimulus measures, 40% responded that they were insufficient, while about 37% said they were adequate. Only around 11% considered them excessive.

Concerning fiscal policies under review by the U.S. Congress and others, 52% considered $1.5 trillion (?1781 trillion) appropriate. Twenty percent said $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion was suitable, and 17% said less than $1 trillion was appropriate.

The recent survey was conducted from the 30th of last month to the 10th of this month, targeting 235 NABE members.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.