"South Korea's COVID-19 Peaks This Month... Up to 23,000 Infections"
JP Morgan Insurance Team Analysis
[Asia Economy Reporter Minji Lee] Opinions have emerged that the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in South Korea will peak at the end of this month and then slow down from early November. Market interest is growing as JP Morgan, which made a 'spot-on' prediction when the COVID-19 infection spread from Shincheonji in February, has released this forecast.
According to the financial investment industry on the 24th, the insurance market analysis team of the US investment bank (IB) JP Morgan made this forecast in the latest COVID-19 trend report published on the 20th.
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According to this report, the number of new confirmed cases, which was around 200 per week until early August, increased more than sixfold to 1,300 in the past week, and the number of confirmed cases is estimated to reach its peak at the end of this month. It is expected that by early November this year, the total number of COVID-19 confirmed cases will reach 23,000, adding about 7,000 new cases to the existing cumulative 16,000 confirmed cases.
JP Morgan predicted that when the COVID-19 infection from Daegu Shincheonji occurred in February, the peak would be on March 20, with more than 10,000 infections. This was estimated based on the assumption that 3% of the 2.4 million residents of Daegu were exposed to the virus and considering the secondary infection rate in China at that time. Although there was a difference in timing, JP Morgan's forecast was ultimately accurate as the actual number of COVID-19 infections in South Korea reached 10,000 on April 3.
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JP Morgan attributed the cause of the third pandemic in Korea to the large-scale resumption of economic activities and relaxed social distancing. However, the report judged that the infection rate has likely decreased compared to before. The report analyzed, "Since COVID-19 tracking and testing capabilities have been strengthened domestically and strict social distancing measures have been implemented, the severity is expected to be relatively less serious compared to previous outbreaks."
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