[SSG nudge Leadership] The Polar Extremes of Collective Intelligence and Groupthink: 'Everyone Write Separately'

- The Decisive Difference in Group Decision-Making That Seems Similar

Changwook Park, CEO of Korea Knowledge Leader Association (Secretary General of Daewoo World Management Research Association)

During a lecture attended by about 50 people, the instructor quizzes the students: "How many rest areas are there on Korean expressways? Please write down the number of rest areas managed by Korea Expressway Corporation." Answers range from as low as 20-30 to as high as over 700-800.

Before giving this quiz, there is some preparation. The instructor hands out lollipops and says, "We are going to play a fun game now," then silences the participants and shows a simple map of the expressway network. The average of the submitted answers is calculated, and the result is usually close to the actual number. This happens every time.

This game is a variation of the concept known as "collective intelligence" or "wisdom of the crowd," adapted to be more experiential. In 1907, British geneticist Francis Galton visited a livestock market in the western part of London. He went there for breed improvement purposes but stopped when he saw an event at the livestock show. A contest was held to guess the weight of a cow placed in front of the participants. Each person bought a ticket for six pence and wrote down their estimate, with a prize awarded to the closest guess. About 800 people participated, with a wide range of occupations and knowledge levels, including many tourists. Few of the winners were experts on cattle. However, the average of all guesses was 1,197 pounds, while the actual weight was 1,198 pounds. Every time the contest was held, the average guess was remarkably close. This story was published in the book "The Wisdom of Crowds" and became widely known along with many other examples.

The problem is the misconception that collective intelligence is always demonstrated when many people participate. In a lecture, the game was conducted differently. Without giving out lollipops, participants with higher ranks or employees who frequently travel domestically were asked to say a number immediately after hearing the quiz, such as "300," "150," or "1020." Then, most answers hovered around those numbers. When a difficult estimation is required, if an expert nearby throws out an answer and influences others, everyone stops thinking independently and follows. Finding an approximate value becomes difficult, and the average often deviates significantly.

The key factor is the "independence of decision-making" among participants. People are influenced by statements from those perceived as experts or knowledgeable. In large groups, it becomes difficult to present unique or diverse answers, leading to groupthink, a phenomenon where opinions converge.

In workplaces, organizations, and homes, many meetings are held to reach good conclusions. However, if participants are asked to speak one by one without considering rank or influence and then produce an answer, the results tend to be biased. The more people there are, the harder it is to reach a proper conclusion.

In such cases, the role of the leader is crucial. The leader should conclude the meeting after listening to issues and phenomena related to the topic. Then, the leader should quickly distribute A4 sheets and instruct everyone to write down their answers individually, making sure to include their names. By reviewing these independently made and accountable responses, diverse and proper opinions can be gathered. If necessary, the leader can call on individuals one by one.

Both collective intelligence and groupthink appear positive in group decision-making, but in reality, they are not. Groupthink disguised as "gathering everyone's opinions through a meeting" under the influence of powerful individuals must be strictly guarded against. We should also be skeptical of opinion polls, consumer surveys, and preference surveys conducted around us.

For reference, when calling Korea Expressway Corporation, they reported that as of 11 a.m. that day, there were 174 expressway rest areas.

Park Chang-wook, CEO of Korea Knowledge Leader Association (Secretary General of Daewoo World Management Research Association)

◆What is 'Nudge Leadership'?

- 'Nudge Leadership' is about leading organizational or personal change through small and gentle interventions or motivation rather than coercive or directive methods. It also involves improving human relationships through small changes in oneself and transforming into a person others want to follow. Ultimately, it inspires creativity and passion within organizations or relationships to create new value and happiness.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.