UAE-Israel Agreement Amid US-China Conflict? ... Beyond Middle East Peace, Checks on Iran and China

Superficially, a coalition against the common enemy 'Iran'
Some interpret it as China containment, shaking Middle East dynamics through nuclear weapons mediation

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Israel's historic peace agreement with the Gulf Arab state, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), is expected to significantly shake up the diplomatic landscape of the Middle East. Although the UAE is a small country, its abundant oil reserves and economic power and influence comparable to Saudi Arabia among Arab League countries mean it is likely to impact other Arab nations as well. In particular, since the UAE-Israel agreement is a strategic move to counter Iran, which commands anti-government armed factions across the Middle East, even China?exerting strong influence in the region through nuclear development?may be drawn into the vortex of Middle Eastern geopolitical realignment.

For now, the agreement is expected to contribute to peace and stability in the Middle East by easing the tense relations between the Arab world and Israel. Tensions had escalated earlier when Israel sought to annex additional Palestinian territories. However, under this agreement, Israel has agreed not to proceed with further annexations. According to AP News and others on the 13th (local time), the UAE stated that during a call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, an agreement was reached to halt Israel's annexation of additional Palestinian territories. Anwar Gargash, UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs, said at a press conference that day, "This agreement is significant in completely silencing Israel's aggressive moves," adding, "It will help to newly reshape diplomatic relations in the Middle East going forward."

Although the UAE does not share a border with Israel, it had not established diplomatic relations with Israel in line with Saudi Arabia's foreign policy, which leads the Arab League. However, considering the UAE's influence, the possibility of other Arab countries joining the peace agreement has increased. At a press conference that day, Prime Minister Netanyahu mentioned, "Soon, more Arab countries will join this chain of peace."

The sudden alliance between these two previously hostile countries is largely aimed at countering their common adversary, Iran. Iran positions itself as the leader of the Shia sect and supports the armed faction Hezbollah, which is engaged in clashes with Israel along the Lebanon border, as well as the Palestinian armed group Hamas, which is also at war with Israel. The UAE, along with Saudi Arabia, is a representative Sunni Muslim country. It is concerned that Shia armed groups linked to Iran in neighboring Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine could stir unrest among its own Shia population. The New York Times (NYT) evaluated, "They will clearly strengthen cooperation in response to their common enemy, Iran," and "potentially lead other Arab countries."

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Some interpret the agreement as ultimately targeting China. This is based on the assessment that China is connected with Middle Eastern countries like Iran through nuclear development. The Israeli daily Haaretz analyzed the peace agreement as "related to the rapidly warming relations between China and Saudi Arabia." Haaretz reported, "What Israel fears most is China's recent rapid closeness with Iran and others," adding, "If China exerts influence over Saudi Arabia and Iran through nuclear capabilities, Israel's diplomatic isolation could deepen."

On the 4th, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing U.S. intelligence sources, reported that Saudi Arabia, with China's support, has constructed uranium mines and extraction facilities. According to WSJ, the close ties between Saudi Arabia and China have strengthened since Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud came to power, and after signing a uranium exploration memorandum of understanding (MOU) in 2017, two uranium mines and extraction facilities were built in northwestern Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia has so far been perceived as a country without any known nuclear weapons program or uranium enrichment facilities and has been completely excluded from the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) monitoring. The Washington Post (WP) reported, "The close ties with China may provoke the U.S. more than Saudi Arabia's nuclear weapons development itself," warning, "The Middle East could become a broader and more unstable arena for U.S.-China nuclear competition in the future."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.