Except Honam, Is the 176-Seat Giant Ruling Party Losing Support... How Far Will the Decline Go?

Democratic Party's Support Plummets... Only 0.8%p Gap with United Party
Controversies Like 'Lease 3 Laws' Seem to Have Impact
Ruling Party "Constant Monitoring of Real Estate Market"

Kim Tae-nyeon, the floor leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is attending the policy coordination meeting held at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, on the morning of the 6th. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Han Seung-gon] The gap in approval ratings between the Democratic Party of Korea and the United Future Party narrowed to 0.8 percentage points, less than 1%, but some believe that except for Honam, the United Future Party has effectively overtaken the Democratic Party in support across almost all regions. The ruling party, holding a massive 176 seats, is barely ahead of the United Future Party, which holds only 103 seats, in terms of support. In the Seoul area, the United Future Party led the Democratic Party.

Criticism has arisen that the Democratic Party responded complacently to a series of issues including real estate policies, United Future Party lawmaker Yoon Hee-sook's '5-minute real estate speech' in the plenary session, Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl's mention of 'dictatorship and totalitarianism,' the late former Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon's sexual harassment allegations, and the Incheon International Airport incident.

The United Future Party appears to be gaining attention regarding candidates for the Seoul mayoral by-election, coinciding with changes in Seoul public sentiment. However, they have stated they will not be swayed by the rising approval ratings. The Democratic Party announced plans to continuously monitor the market concerning real estate policies, which are cited as a cause for their declining support.

According to a survey conducted by Realmeter on behalf of TBS from the 3rd to the 5th, targeting 1,510 men and women aged 18 and over nationwide, the Democratic Party's support dropped 2.7 percentage points from the previous week to 35.6%, announced on the 6th. Meanwhile, the United Future Party's support rose 3.1 percentage points to 34.8%, higher than right after its founding (2nd week of February, 33.7%).

As the Democratic Party's support declined and the United Future Party's rose, the gap between the two parties narrowed to 0.8 percentage points. Notably, in Seoul, the United Future Party recorded 37.1%, surpassing the Democratic Party's 34.9%.

The Democratic Party's core supporters in their 30s (35.6%) fell by 10.1 percentage points from the previous week, and women (36.2%) dropped by 3.4 percentage points.

◆ President Moon's approval rating and support in Gwangju and Jeolla also declined

President Moon Jae-in's approval rating also fell 1.9 percentage points from the previous week to 44.5%.

Negative evaluations rose by 2.2 percentage points to 51.6%, with negative ratings exceeding positive ratings for the fourth consecutive week. The 'dead cross' phenomenon, where negative evaluations surpass positive ones, has continued for four weeks. The undecided/no response rate was 3.9%.

By region, approval in Daegu and Gyeongbuk dropped 14.7 percentage points to 27.5%. Support in Gwangju and Jeolla also fell by 5.4 percentage points to 65.5%. The Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong region, where the administrative capital relocation issue exists, saw a 3.9 percentage point increase to 46.4%.

By age group, support among those in their 30s dropped 9.4 percentage points to 43.9%, and among those in their 20s, it fell 3.8 percentage points to 39.9%. Negative evaluations of President Moon among female supporters rose 4 percentage points to 50.8%.

By ideological inclination, support among progressives fell 4.1 percentage points to 72%, centrists dropped 3.5 percentage points to 38.1%, while conservatives' support rose 6.8 percentage points to 26.6%.

With the United Future Party closing in on the Democratic Party in party support and President Moon's approval rating declining, some Democratic Party supporters have expressed dissatisfaction.

A man in his 40s working in Seoul, identified as Park, said, "I think this result was somewhat expected," adding, "The party has not responded properly to various issues. It might be fine if they do better next time, but if this failure to respond properly repeats, I worry this approval rating will solidify."

Another person in their 30s, Kim, said, "If this trend continues until the upcoming by-election, it will be somewhat embarrassing for the party," lamenting, "There should be some countermeasures."

Kim Jong-in, Emergency Response Committee Chairman of the United Future Party, is answering reporters' questions after concluding a closed emergency response committee meeting at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, on the morning of the 6th.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆ Ruling party falls simultaneously in Daegu, Gyeongbuk, Busan, and Gyeongnam except Honam

Some believe that except for the Honam region, the Democratic Party has effectively lost ground in other regions. The Democratic Party ended a two-week rise and reversed into a decline. Support rose in Gwangju and Jeolla (up 3.8 percentage points) and among those in their 50s (up 3.8 percentage points), but fell sharply in Daegu and Gyeongbuk (down 13.3 percentage points), Busan and Gyeongnam (down 6.0 percentage points), Gyeonggi and Incheon (down 5.2 percentage points), women (down 3.4 percentage points), those in their 30s (down 10.1 percentage points) and 40s (down 6.2 percentage points), progressives (down 7.3 percentage points), and among labor workers (down 6.8 percentage points) and office workers (down 5.5 percentage points).

The United Future Party recorded its highest support since its founding at 34.8%. The previous peak was 33.7% in the 3rd week of February, right after its founding. Support rose across the board in Busan and Gyeongnam (up 9.0 percentage points), Daegu and Gyeongbuk (up 8.4 percentage points), women (up 5.2 percentage points), those aged 70 and over (up 9.9 percentage points) and 60s (up 6.4 percentage points), centrists (up 4.3 percentage points), and among agricultural, forestry, and fishery workers (up 12.5 percentage points) and self-employed (up 4.4 percentage points).

A 30-year-old office worker who supports the United Future Party, identified as A, said, "Considering Honam as the Democratic Party's stronghold and looking at the support gap, I think the United Future Party has effectively overtaken in terms of support," emphasizing, "But this is not because the United Future Party did well, but because the Democratic Party performed very poorly."

Amid rising approval ratings, the United Future Party is focusing on steadying the atmosphere. Facing a potential reversal against the massive ruling party with 176 seats, they seem cautious about slipping into controversy due to careless remarks that could cause a decline in support. Floor leader Joo Ho-young said at a press briefing, "(The parliamentary struggle) may have been partially reflected, but approval ratings are very complex, and there are surveys with significant differences," adding, "We will not be swayed by every little change."

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party plans to focus on stabilizing the real estate market by reviewing follow-up legislation. Policy Committee Chair Cho Jung-sik said at a party policy coordination meeting on the 6th, "The party and government will establish a permanent management and monitoring system for the real estate market to eliminate all types of market disturbances. If necessary, follow-up institutional improvements will be promptly implemented."

He continued, "We will also steadily promote policies to expand supply for actual demanders such as first-time homebuyers and the homeless to accelerate changes in the housing paradigm. We will expedite the establishment of the newly introduced 'public participation high-density reconstruction' project and devise ways to improve satisfaction with public housing occupancy."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.